The 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival coincide, resulting in an 8-day holiday; in previous years, the September-October peak season marked the start of a new cold year, with copper pipe & tube market orders and operating rates being quite impressive. However, this October may be the most sluggish for copper pipe & tube production in recent years.
I. Number of Days Off
SMM's communication with enterprises revealed that most companies plan to take 1-3 more days off compared to last year’s National Day holiday, while only a few might reduce their holidays by 1-2 days, depending on actual order conditions during the last three trading days before the holiday.
II. Stockpiling Before the Holiday
Copper prices surged to the highest point of the year, breaking through the 83,000 yuan/mt mark. Most enterprises indicated limited new orders. Large enterprises stated that raw material inventory can be supplemented with imported copper and long-term contract sources, whereas small enterprises without such contracts or imports will purchase copper cathode as needed. However, high copper prices increase the financial cost of early stockpiling, and adjustments to stockpiling are expected based on order conditions in the two trading days before the holiday.
III. Market Situation
Due to the rush to export air conditioners and a series of domestic subsidies in H1, both domestic sales and exports were robust, which has preempted some demand for H2. According to ChinaIOL's production schedule data, household air conditioner domestic sales for September 2025 are scheduled at 5.72 million units, down 6.3% YoY; for October, 4.815 million units, down 23.4% YoY; and for November, 5.55 million units, down 17.6% YoY. For exports, September 2025 is scheduled at 5.025 million units, down 16.6% YoY; for October, 6.065 million units, down 7.8% YoY; and for November, 7.86 million units, down 9.1% YoY.
IV. Market Sentiment
Given the significant decline in air conditioner production schedules and no clear signs of recovery in both domestic and export markets, most copper pipe & tube enterprises do not have a positive outlook for H2. Due to US tariffs on imported copper pipe & tube, the volume of Chinese and Thai copper pipe & tube exports to the US has noticeably declined since May, dropping even further after July. US copper pipe & tube factories are operating at full capacity and will continue to promote local capacity ramp-up. It is expected that the operating rate of Chinese copper pipe & tube in Q4 will weaken YoY.
