The strengthening of the US dollar, coupled with rising trade concerns, led to overnight copper prices fluctuating and declining.

Published: Jul 4, 2025 08:48

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Macro side, data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June. Affected by this, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts dropped significantly, and the US dollar rose, which was bearish for copper prices. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent warned countries not to extend trade negotiations, stating that if no progress is made, tariffs may revert to the levels of April 2nd, exacerbating market concerns.
Fundamentals side, supply side, as it was Friday today, there were imported goods arriving in the market, and overall supply was not tight. Demand side, downstream buyers were expected to remain cautious in their procurement sentiment amid high copper prices. As of Thursday, July 3rd, SMM copper inventories in major regions across the country increased by 5,700 mt from Monday to 131,800 mt, and increased by 1,700 mt from last Thursday. Weekly inventories first decreased and then increased, and are currently 278,000 mt lower than the 409,800 mt in the same period last year.
Price side, there is currently pressure on the upside of copper prices. In addition to the above factors, the US House of Representatives passed Trump's bill for significant tax cuts and increased government spending, which may increase inflationary pressures, especially given the strong signs in the economy, such as the latest employment report. Therefore, it is expected that there will be significant pressure on the upside of copper

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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