This week, the ferrous metals series first rose and then fell, with an overall downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the China-US talks sent optimistic signals, improving market sentiment and driving up the futures market. However, mid-week, the fundamental factors of steel turned weak, coupled with fading sentiment, causing the futures market to decline. As the weekend approached, the US announced that it would impose a tariff hike on steel home appliances starting from the 23rd, leading to a significant drop in the futures market, except for coking coal and coke. In the spot market, the futures market rose in the first half of the week, leading to a phased improvement in market transactions. However, most transactions were driven by rigid demand for low-priced purchases, and seasonal characteristics began to emerge...

[SMM Daily Coke Market Briefing] In terms of supply, the national environmental protection checks team has been stationed in provinces such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, with environmental protection checks becoming stricter. Some coke enterprises have implemented phased production cuts, and some have slightly reduced production due to losses and inventory accumulation, leading to a tightening of coke supply. Demand side, the off-season in the market has led to a decrease in demand for finished steel products. Additionally, steel mills' coke inventory is at a medium-to-high level, lacking restocking demand. Some steel mills with high coke inventory are even controlling the arrival of goods. In terms of news, the US Department of Commerce announced that it will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel household appliances starting from June 23, including "steel derivatives" such as dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators. In summary, downstream demand has weakened, coke supply is relatively loose, and there is an expectation of weakening cost support. Next week, there is an expectation of a fourth round of coke price cuts.

This week, HRC prices first rose and then fell, fluctuating rangebound within a certain range. The market trading atmosphere improved, with weekly transaction volumes being moderate. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance in the hot-rolled sector decreased this week, leading to an increase in HRC supply. On the demand side, major automakers issued statements committing to "payment terms not exceeding 60 days," reducing the credit risk in the automotive industry, accelerating trade payments, and increasing the willingness to purchase, thereby increasing apparent demand. In terms of inventory, SMM statistics showed that the social inventory of HRC in 86 warehouses nationwide was 3.0577 million mt this week, down 12,300 mt MoM, or 0.4% MoM, indicating a slight decline in nationwide social inventory. On the cost side, coke prices remained stable this week, while iron ore prices adjusted downward within a narrow range, resulting in unstable cost support. Looking ahead, the impact from maintenance in the hot-rolled sector is expected to decrease further, with supply showing an increasing trend. However, with the arrival of high temperatures and rainy weather, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. Additionally, there is an expectation of coke price declines, and cost support is expected to continue to weaken. Next week, the most-traded HRC futures contract may remain in the doldrums within the 3000-3120 range, and the expectation of HRC prices in the doldrums remains unchanged.

[SMM Coke and Coking Coal Inventory: Coke inventory at coking plants this week was 438,000 mt] Coke inventory at coking plants this week was 438,000 mt, up 23,000 mt or 5.5% MoM. Coke inventory at steel mills was 2.54 million mt, down 47,000 mt or 1.8% MoM. Coke inventory at ports was 1.27 million mt, down 130,000 mt or 9.3% MoM. Coking coal inventory at coking plants was 2.451 million mt, down 77,000 mt or 3.0% MoM.

According to CCTV News, on June 12, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked about the meeting of the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism. Lin Jian stated that he would like to emphasize that this meeting was held under the strategic guidance of the heads of state of the two countries. The two sides reached a consensus in principle on the framework of measures to implement the important consensus reached during the phone call between the heads of state of the two countries on June 5 and to consolidate the outcomes of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. The Chinese side has always delivered on its promises. Now that a consensus has been reached, both sides should abide by it. It is hoped that the U.S. side will work with the Chinese side to implement the important consensus reached during the phone call between the heads of state of the two countries, give full play to the role of the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism, and enhance consensus, reduce misunderstandings, and strengthen cooperation through communication and dialogue.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary] Yesterday, the steel futures market fluctuated downward, closing at 2,968, down 0.70% from the previous trading day. On the spot side, most market quotes dropped slightly, with declines of 10-20 yuan/mt, and the trading performance throughout the day was mediocre...

Today, the most-traded HRC futures contract hit a peak and then pulled back, with the 2510 contract closing at 3,080 yuan/mt, down 0.87% MoM. Spot prices fell by 10-30 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, HRC production increased by 77,100 mt this week, and supply pressure rebounded rapidly. On the demand side, seasonal characteristics of demand have emerged, with purchasing as needed being the main trend. In terms of raw materials, pig iron output may continue to decline in the short term, and there are still expectations for four rounds of coke price cuts. The cost support for HRC has slightly weakened. Overall, as mentioned yesterday, the favourable macro sentiment brought about by the China-US talks has largely dissipated, and the market has once again returned to the fundamental logic of the off-season. There are still expectations for an increase in HRC supply, while inventory has begun to accumulate in some markets in the north and south. It is expected that HRC prices will be in the doldrums in the short term.

[SMM Daily Coke Market Briefing] In terms of supply, the national environmental protection inspection teams have been stationed in many northern provinces. With some coking enterprises incurring losses and accumulating inventory, they have slightly cut production, leading to a tightening of coke supply. In terms of demand, the finished steel market has entered the off-season. Pig iron output from steel mills has declined, and their coke inventory remains at a medium-to-high level. As a result, there is a lack of restocking demand, and steel mills are mainly purchasing as needed, with some controlling the arrival of goods. In summary, downstream demand is weak. This week, coke prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, and there is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts next week.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary] Yesterday, positive signals were released from the macro perspective. The agreement framework reached in principle during the China-US-London business talks boosted market sentiment, leading to an upward oscillation in the futures market. In the spot market, most market quotes increased, with rises of 10-30 yuan/mt. Trading performance throughout the day was average...

On June 10 local time, Li Chenggang, the International Trade Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce, said in London, when referring to the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, that China and the United States had conducted professional, rational, in-depth, and candid communications. The two sides reached a framework in principle on implementing the consensus reached during the phone call between the heads of state of the two countries on June 5, as well as the consensus reached during the Geneva talks.