Prebaked anode exports declined in April 2025, but the increase in European market demand was notable [SMM analysis]

SMM May 31 Report:

According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports in April 2025 reached 154,100 mt, down 7.64% YoY and 20.01% MoM. A rough calculation shows that the average export price of prebaked anodes in April 2024 was approximately $843.64/mt, up 25.23% YoY and 7.31% MoM. In 2025, China's cumulative prebaked anode exports totaled 736,700 mt, up 13.83% YoY.

From the perspective of domestic export regions, prebaked anode exports in 2025 were concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hunan provinces. Shandong province's cumulative export volume reached 566,300 mt, accounting for 77% of the total, ranking first. This was followed by Jiangsu province with a cumulative export volume of 57,900 mt, accounting for 8% of the total, and then Hunan province with a cumulative export volume of 55,300 mt, also accounting for 8% of the total.

In terms of export countries, the main export destinations for domestic prebaked anodes in 2025 were Malaysia, Canada, and the UAE, accounting for approximately 46% of total exports. Among them, the total export volume of prebaked anodes to Malaysia was 132,500 mt, accounting for 18% of the total, down 25.06% YoY. The total export volume of prebaked anodes to Canada was approximately 113,500 mt, accounting for 15% of the total exports, up 24.20% YoY. The total export volume of prebaked anodes to the UAE was approximately 92,400 mt, accounting for 13% of the total exports, up 18.51% YoY.

Overall, based on the prebaked anode export data for April 2025, although there was a general decline in export volume, there were different performances in segmented markets. Orders exported to Malaysia, Indonesia, and Bahrain decreased significantly, mainly due to aluminum smelters digesting their existing inventories, leading to a reduction in demand for new orders. However, orders for prebaked anodes exported to Germany showed an increasing trend, closely related to the recovery of the European aluminum industry. With the recovery of the European market, increased demand drove corresponding prebaked anode imports. According to SMM's survey, export orders performed well overall in 2025. One of the main reasons was the continuous addition of new capacity in the overseas aluminum market and the resumption of production by some enterprises, a trend that boosted demand for prebaked anodes. Additionally, domestic prebaked anode prices surged in Q1 2025 due to a sharp increase in raw material prices, leading to a corresponding increase in overseas order prices. However, after entering Q2, signs of weakness emerged in the raw material side of prebaked anodes, weakening the driving force behind price increases. It is expected that export order prices will also shift from rising to falling.