Q2 alumina prices likely to walk a rocky road with market turbulence and supply surge on the rise

Published: Apr 28, 2025 11:22

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The global alumina market has endured a dramatic roller‑coaster in early 2025, witnessing a severe price slump in the first quarter and a raft of fresh supply hitting the market in the recent weeks. While analysts now eye a price floor in coming months, forecast revisions evidently highlights the fragility of near-term price momentum.

Q2 alumina prices likely to walk a rocky road with market turbulence and supply surge on the rise
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As of April 16, the benchmark price for Australian alumina stood at USD 347.50 per tonne on a FOB (Free on Board) basis — the price that covers the cost of transporting the goods to the port and loading them onto the ship, with the buyer covering the cost from that point onwards. This price point represents nearly a 50 per cent drop from where it stood at the beginning of January.

In comparison, Brazilian alumina exports are currently trading at a consistent premium over the Australian benchmark. The ‘FOB Brazil Atlantic Differential (AD)’ is a measure of how much more Brazilian alumina is fetching in the market relative to the Australian benchmark. As of the same date, this differential stood at a USD 20 per tonne premium. In other words, buyers are paying USD 367.50 per tonne for Brazilian alumina versus USD 347.50 per tonne for Australian alumina.

What’s noteworthy is that this USD 20 per tonne premium has remained stable throughout the first quarter (Q1) of the year.

Simultaneously, China’s domestic ex‑works Shanxi price slid to RMB 2,850 per tonne, reflecting widespread bearish sentiment.

The slump was primarily driven by the anticipated ramp-up of new refinery capacity across Asia. Indonesia’s Mempawah plant, a 1 million tonnes per annum JV between PT Inalum and Antam, began trial runs in late 2024, while Hangzhou Jinjiang and Shandong Nanshan each pushed ahead with million‑tonne expansions. Collectively, these projects promised to flood the market with an estimated 3 to 4 million tonnes of fresh alumina in Q2 and Q3, possibly leaving buyers reluctant to chase higher prices.

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