【SMM Analysis】The operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained low, with an overall subdued willingness to sell.

SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Refined Tin Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Remain Low, Overall Willingness to Sell Is Relatively Weak: According to SMM's in-depth market survey data, as of this Friday, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at low levels, with a combined operating rate of 56.96%. Yunnan Region: Since the implementation of the mining ban in Myanmar's Wa State in 2023, tin ore imports in Yunnan have continued to decline, and the raw material inventory cycle has been compressed from normal levels to lower levels. Recently, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar (with the epicenter only 200 kilometers from the Manxiang mining area) led to the indefinite postponement of the resumption meeting originally scheduled for April 1, further exacerbating market fears of a supply disruption from Southeast Asian ore sources. Coupled with the slow progress of phased resumption in the DRC, the short-term raw material gap is difficult to bridge. Tin concentrate TCs have fallen to historical lows, and corporate production enthusiasm has declined. Jiangxi Region: Structural disruptions in scrap supply have led to a decline in recycled tin volume in Jiangxi compared to Q4 2024. The US imposition of a 245% tariff on Chinese consumer electronics has impacted exports, and emerging demands such as PV welding strips have yet to fill the traditional gap, resulting in a continued decline in recycled scrap supply. This week, the SHFE tin market remained volatile, with most smelters showing low willingness to sell and adopting a wait-and-see attitude.