SHFE/LME Price Ratio Slightly Rebounds with Structure Returning; Inquiries Increase but Transactions Remain Sparse [SMM Yangshan Spot Copper]

March 17, 2025: Today's warrant prices were $45-55/mt, QP March, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $76-90/mt, QP April, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $15-25/mt, QP March, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. The quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late March and early April.

During the day, import margins were -600 yuan/mt based on the SHFE 2503 copper contract/LME price ratio. LME copper 3M-Mar was at C$47.54/mt, LME copper 3M-Apr was at C$18.56/mt, and the spread between March and April dates was around C$28.98/mt. Spot offers in the morning market were scattered. Due to the recovery in the price ratio, buyer inquiries were mostly focused on warrants, but market offers remained high, leading to significant differences between buyers and sellers, making transactions difficult. Additionally, market sources reported that long-term contract schedules for March-shipped seaborne cargoes continued to be delayed, raising concerns about long-term supply.

Currently, the actual warrant price for pyro high-quality copper is $55/mt, mainstream pyro is $50/mt, and hydrometallurgical is $45/mt. High-quality copper B/L is $90/mt, mainstream pyro is around $83/mt, and hydrometallurgical is $76/mt. CIF B/L EQ copper is $15-25/mt, with an average price of $20/mt.