[SMM Weekly Data on Copper Inventories in Major Regions] As of Monday, March 17, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China decreased by 6,500 mt from last Thursday to 349,000 mt, down by 28,000 mt from the highest level this year. In addition, the current nationwide inventory is 46,400 mt lower YoY.

Today, spot copper cathode in North China was at a discount of 160-800 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 120 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Transaction prices were 79,680-79,920 yuan/mt, with an average price of 79,800 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,797/mt, peaked at $9,822.5/mt, and hit a low of $9,761.0/mt during the session, eventually closing at $9,793.0/mt.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Trump Launches Tariff Investigation on Copper Amid Chile's Worst Power Crisis in Nearly a Decade] Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,797/mt, peaked at $9,822.5/mt, and dipped to a low of $9,761.0/mt during the session, eventually closing at $9,793.0/mt. The overall trend showed an initial rise, followed by a decline and then fluctuations, with a 0.45% change. Trading volume was 15,419 lots, and open interest was 302,095 lots. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2504 futures contract opened at 80,120 yuan/mt, reached a session high of 80,160 yuan/mt, and dropped to a low of 79,690 yuan/mt, finally closing at 79,880 yuan/mt. The overall trend exhibited a fluctuating downward pattern, with a 0.00% change. Trading volume was 14,333 lots, and open interest was 143,098 lots.

[US Dollar Index Remains at a Four-Month Low, High Copper Prices Suppress Consumption] Macro side, the US consumer confidence index in March fell for the third consecutive month, while consumers' expectations for future inflation increased, with the annual inflation rate for the next year expected to reach 4.9%, the highest level since 2022. Additionally, the US Commerce Secretary stated that tariffs on imported cars might be imposed next month. The US dollar index jumped initially and then pulled back, still hovering at its lowest level in over four months, providing support for copper prices.

[SMM Commentary: Copper Prices Break Through the 80,000 Yuan Mark Amid Mixed Macro Signals and Weak Supply and Demand Fundamentals—How Will the Copper Market Perform?] Amid rising concerns over a US economic recession and the impact of US tariffs clouding the global demand outlook, the US dollar index continued its weakness. Coupled with US non-farm payrolls growth falling short of expectations and February CPI inflation in the US coming in below expectations across the board, market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut have increased. LME and SHFE copper prices initially declined but later rebounded this week. Market expectations for domestic policy support to continue boosting demand, combined with ongoing destocking of domestic copper inventories, have supported copper prices. As of 16:53 on March 14, LME copper rose 0.58% to $9,840/mt, with its weekly performance extending the previous week's gains, up 2.36% so far. SHFE copper increased 1.03% to 80,500 yuan/mt, marking its second consecutive weekly gain with a rise of 2.29% this week.

According to SMM data, starting from March 6, 2025, SMM mainstream copper cathode social warehouse inventories began consecutive destocking, with a total reduction exceeding 20,000 mt over the past three statistical periods. As of March 14, 2025, domestic copper cathode inventories totaled 345,500 mt, down 33,600 mt YoY, indicating that the destocking turning point in 2025 arrived earlier than in 2024.

[SMM Analysis] According to SMM data, starting from March 6, 2025, inventories of mainstream copper cathode in SMM social warehouses began consecutive destocking, with a total destocking of over 20,000 mt in the past three statistical periods. As of March 14, 2025, domestic copper cathode inventories totaled 345,500 mt, 33,600 mt lower YoY, indicating that the destocking turning point in 2025 arrived earlier than in 2024.