November Aluminum Alloy Imports Fell Over 8% MoM; Losses Worsen, Further Declines May Follow [SMM Analysis]

SMM, December 20:

Recently, the General Administration of Customs released import and export data for November 2024. According to customs data:

In November 2024, China's imports of unwrought aluminum alloy totaled 200,000 mt, down 8.8% YoY and 11.6% MoM. From January to November 2024, cumulative imports reached 1.1076 million mt, up 8.6% YoY.

In November 2024, exports of unwrought aluminum alloy amounted to 20,200 mt, up 28.6% YoY but down 1.6% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to November totaled 221,100 mt, down 0.3% YoY.

The chart below shows the monthly import and export volumes of unwrought aluminum alloy from 2023 to 2024:      

China's country-specific import and export data for unwrought aluminum alloy in November 2024:

In November 2024, the top five countries for China's unwrought aluminum alloy imports were Malaysia (37,400 mt), Thailand (17,000 mt), South Korea (12,500 mt), Russia (12,300 mt), and Vietnam (4,700 mt), accounting for 37%, 17%, 12.2%, 12.1%, and 5%, respectively. Malaysia's imports decreased by 18,000 mt from the previous month due to port congestion in November, while imports from other countries increased slightly.

In terms of exports, November's unwrought aluminum alloy exports totaled 20,200 mt, with Japan being the largest export destination at 12,500 mt, accounting for over 60%. South Korea and Germany ranked second and third, accounting for 15% (2,900 mt) and 6% (1,200 mt), respectively, while other countries collectively accounted for less than 20%.

China's province-specific import data for unwrought aluminum alloy in November 2024:

In November 2024, the top five provinces for China's unwrought aluminum alloy imports were Zhejiang (46,600 mt), Guangdong (13,100 mt), Jiangsu (10,700 mt), Shandong (7,300 mt), and Henan (6,800 mt). Zhejiang's import share fell by 7 percentage points MoM to 46%, while the shares of the other provinces were 13%, 10%, 7%, and 6%, respectively, with the remaining provinces collectively accounting for about 17%.

Overall, in November 2024, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy ingots decreased both MoM and YoY but remained at a relatively high level of over 100,000 mt. Malaysia's imports fell by 18,000 mt from the previous month due to port congestion in November. Although imports from other countries increased slightly, they were not enough to offset the overall decline. After mid-November, the domestic ADC12 price center shifted downward along with aluminum prices, while overseas prices remained relatively stable. Meanwhile, the US dollar index surged due to Trump's tariff hike policy and hawkish remarks from the US Fed, causing the yuan exchange rate to plummet sharply, hitting 7.326 at one point this week, the lowest since November 3, 2023. With these factors combined, the immediate profitability of importing ADC12 turned into a loss. It is expected that aluminum alloy ingot port arrivals will decline after December.