Leading Enterprises Lead Another Production Cut, Glass Transaction Focus Shifts Downward in November [SMM Analysis]

As of November 26, SMM reports the new order prices for glass in November are as follows: 2.0mm single-layer coating (11.5-12 yuan/m²); 2.0mm double-layer coating (12.5-13 yuan/m²); 3.2mm single-layer coating (20.5-21.5 yuan/m²); and 3.2mm double-layer coating (21.5-22.5 yuan/m²). By the end of November, the high transaction prices of domestic PV glass have decreased, with mainstream transactions focusing on lower prices, reflecting poor market demand.

Regarding price trends, domestic glass prices in November remained stable with a weak trend. Although some module enterprises increased their production schedules to ensure shipments, most module factories saw a decline in planned production, reducing their purchase willingness for auxiliary materials. The rigid demand remained above 45GW, providing overall support for glass transactions. Additionally, the rise in natural gas prices in November also supported glass costs. Despite the slight decline in demand, the price range remained stable, with the transaction focus shifting slightly downward.

In terms of inventory, the domestic glass industry inventory in November is expected to decrease initially and then increase. The inventory decreased at the beginning of the month due to new order purchases but increased slightly in mid-to-late November as module demand fell again.

Supply side, the overall module scheduled production in November continued to decline. Domestic supply reductions were still significant. According to SMM, the daily melting volume of domestic PV glass decreased by nearly 5,000 mt/day in November due to blocks and cold repairs. Among these, the cold repair capacity was 3,320 mt/day, with leading enterprises leading the cold repairs, reaching a capacity of 2,000 mt/day. Additionally, there is a plan for another 2,200 mt/day capacity to undergo cold repairs, indicating an overall trend of production cuts in the industry.

In summary, SMM believes that with the end of the rush for installations, module scheduled production will see a significant decline. Additionally, the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday will further dampen demand, leading to glass prices falling below the cost line of top-tier enterprises, with prices expected to continue declining.