Primary Aluminum Net Imports Decline Month-on-Month and Year-on-Year in September; Q4 Net Imports Forecasted to Drop 34% YoY Amid Tight Overseas Supply

[SMM comentário matinal de liga de alumínio fundido: estoque social de liga de alumínio sobe por quatro semanas consecutivas; foco na realização da demanda na alta temporada] Durante a noite, o contrato mais negociado de liga de alumínio fundido 2611 abriu a 23.775 yuans/t, disparou para 23.800 yuans, depois consolidou e recuou, caindo para uma mínima de 23.600 yuans antes de uma leve recuperação perto do fechamento. Fechou a 23.610 yuans/t, alta de 20 yuans ou 0,08% em relação ao preço de liquidação de ontem de 23.590 yuans.

[Insufficient Peak-Season Demand Realization, Accelerated Destocking Provides Upward Price Momentum] Overall assessment: macro tightening expectations have been digested, and low inventory combined with accelerated destocking is providing a floor and dominating pricing this week. However, insufficient peak-season demand realization, the risk of aluminum billet inventory buildup transmitting to ingot inventory, and the ongoing recovery of supply outside China are limiting the upside room for aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term.