SMM Analysis On China September Molybdenum Concentrate Production And October Forecast

In H1 2026, Americas moly supply divergence deepened. Despite stronger mining profits, overall output failed to rebound. While H2 may see recoveries at select large mines, supply elasticity remains constrained. Which operations are dragging on supply, and where will incremental growth emerge? SMM data reveals a market entering a new phase of "stronger margins, diverging production, and concentrated incremental gains."...

SMM, September 11: Recently, international molybdenum oxide prices have continued to consolidate on a strong note, with the center of quotations in markets outside China moving somewhat higher. Meanwhile, China's molybdenum market has remained relatively cautious overall, presenting a pattern of being in the doldrums. The trends in Chinese and overseas markets have shown some divergence, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets has widened further.

SMM, September 11‑International molybdenum oxide prices moved sharply higher. SMM assessed Molybdenum Oxide CIF Tianjin Port at $33.9‑34 per lb‑Mo, with the average settling at $33.95 per lb‑Mo (equivalent to roughly RMB 5,735 per dmtu on a China tax‑inclusive basis), up $0.28 per lb‑Mo from the previous trading day. The import arbitrage window for molybdenum oxide remains closed. Bullish sentiment returned in China’s spot market, with holders keeping offers firm and ferro‑molybdenum transaction prices edging higher. Today SMM’s 45% molybdenum concentrate was assessed at RMB 5,425 per dmtu; molybdenum oxide stood at RMB 5,535 per dmtu, unchanged day‑on‑day. Steel mill procurement tenders for ferro‑molybdenum were mainly concluded at RMB 339,000‑340,000 per tonne.