[SMM Analysis] Stronger Profits, Yet Limited Supply Elasticity: H1 2026 Americas Moly Mine Review

SMM, Sep 11: Major overseas operators of copper-molybdenum and primary molybdenum mines have largely completed the disclosure of their 2026 semi-annual reports. Based on data disclosed by relevant companies and official agencies, SMM estimates that the major overseas mines in its tracking sample produced approximately 65,900 tonnes of molybdenum in H1 2026, down around 2,100 tonnes from approximately 68,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of about 3.2%.

Official national statistics and SMM mine-level tracking show that the contraction in overseas molybdenum supply was far from uniform. Instead, the market displayed a more pronounced structural divergence: national output declined year on year in Chile and Peru, increased in the United States, while SMM's sample of major Mexican mines also recorded lower production. At the mine level, production changes were highly concentrated among a relatively small number of large operations. Meanwhile, profitability among major miners generally strengthened, highlighting a key feature of the H1 market: stronger earnings did not translate into a comparable increase in molybdenum supply.

Figure 1. H1 2026 YoY Change Across Major Overseas Molybdenum Mines (major mines with the largest absolute changes)

Chile: COCHILCO national output declined, with major-mine reductions remaining the key theme

According to the Chilean Copper Commission (COCHILCO), Chile produced approximately 18,800 tonnes of molybdenum in H1 2026, down about 7.8% year on year. At the mine level, the combined Chuquicamata and Radomiro Tomic operations, together with El Teniente and Los Pelambres, were among the principal sources of production losses, while Andina and Quebrada Blanca contributed relatively notable gains. Codelco's latest half-year results also showed an 11% year-on-year decline in its own copper production, mainly due to operating restrictions at El Teniente, maintenance at Chuquicamata and weaker ore grades at certain operations.

Looking into H2, the key variables for Chilean supply are shifting towards weather conditions and the pace of operational recovery. Los Pelambres experienced an orderly temporary shutdown in July following unusually heavy rainfall and intermittent power disruptions before operations resumed. Antofagasta plc revised its 2026 group copper production guidance to 625,000-655,000 tonnes in its half-year results. Caserones was affected by successive winter storms in July-August, and Lundin Mining Corporation subsequently lowered the mine's full-year copper production guidance from 130,000-140,000 tonnes to 120,000-130,000 tonnes. As molybdenum is produced as a copper by-product, molybdenum output is also expected to be affected. SMM therefore assumes a moderate H2 recovery at Los Pelambres, at around 5,000 tonnes of molybdenum, while maintaining a more cautious assumption for Caserones at approximately 800 tonnes.

Peru: MINEM national output edged lower, with Antamina remaining the largest swing factor

According to the June 2026 preliminary metals production statistics released by Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM), Peru produced approximately 18,800 tonnes of molybdenum in H1 2026, down about 4.5% year on year. Antamina produced around 810 tonnes, a marked decline from the elevated H1 2025 level and one of the most significant single-mine reductions. Quellaveco and Las Bambas, by contrast, recorded year-on-year improvements, partially offsetting weaker supply elsewhere.

Antamina remains particularly important to the H2 outlook. Operating information disclosed by BHP indicates that copper output remained relatively strong while molybdenum production stayed at low levels, illustrating that stronger copper performance does not necessarily translate into stronger molybdenum output. Given that Antamina's molybdenum production had already fallen to relatively low levels in H2 2025, SMM assumes a cautious recovery in H2 2026 to approximately 1,300 tonnes, still well below the H1 2025 level. Las Bambas temporarily suspended operations following a safety incident on August 18 and resumed mine and concentrator operations from August 21. Given the short duration of the disruption, SMM has not materially lowered its full-year forecast, although a degree of operating-risk discount remains incorporated.

Mexico: Major mine sample remains constrained by lower ore grades

SMM tracks La Caridad and Buenavista, two major Mexican copper-molybdenum mines operated by Southern Copper Corporation. Their combined molybdenum output totalled approximately 7,800 tonnes in H1 2026, down around 7% year on year. Southern Copper reported a 6.7% year-on-year decline in H1 molybdenum production, with Toquepala, Cuajone, Buenavista and La Caridad all affected by lower ore grades. With no clear evidence yet of a material reversal in ore grades, SMM maintains a relatively cautious outlook for the two major Mexican mines, forecasting combined H2 production of approximately 6,700 tonnes.

United States: USGS national output increased, while mine-level performance remained highly divergent

SMM uses nationwide molybdenum mine production data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as the benchmark for U.S. supply. USGS data show that U.S. molybdenum mine production reached approximately 21,100 tonnes in H1 2026, up modestly from around 20,100 tonnes in H1 2025. At the mine level, SMM tracking indicates that Bingham Canyon and Bagdad contributed notable production gains, while Sierrita recorded a pronounced decline. SMM currently expects U.S. molybdenum production to remain broadly stable at around 21,000 tonnes in H2 2026, implying approximately 42,100 tonnes for the full year. These figures are SMM estimates and do not represent an official USGS full-year forecast.

Figure 2. H1 2026 Actual vs. H2 2026 Forecast Molybdenum Supply in Major Overseas Producing Regions (all H2 values are SMM estimates)

A significant share of global molybdenum is produced as a by-product of copper mining, and most mining companies do not separately disclose profits attributable to their molybdenum businesses. Corporate financial performance is therefore used only as a supplementary indicator of overall mine operating conditions. In H1 2026, major miners including Codelco, Antofagasta plc, MMG Limited, Lundin Mining Corporation, KGHM Polska Miedź and Teck Resources Limited generally reported solid profitability, with most recording year-on-year improvements in EBITDA or adjusted EBITDA.

However, stronger earnings did not translate directly into higher molybdenum production. A more favourable metals-price environment can improve overall revenue and cash flow, but at copper-molybdenum operations, near-term molybdenum output remains more heavily influenced by ore grades, mining sequence, molybdenum recovery rates and concentrator performance. As a result, stronger corporate profitability should not be interpreted as a direct signal of higher molybdenum supply.

Figure 3. H1 2026 Earnings Improvement Across Major Miners (directional comparison only; absolute earnings levels are not ranked)

Under SMM's current base-case scenario, and based on H1 2026 actual production, corporate full-year guidance and recent operating developments, overseas molybdenum supply is expected to recover modestly in H2, but the improvement is unlikely to be broad-based. SMM estimates molybdenum production from the relevant mine sample at approximately 66,200 tonnes in H2 2026, compared with around 65,900 tonnes in H1, representing a sequential increase of about 0.5%. Overall supply is therefore expected to remain broadly stable, with only a modest recovery.

At the country level, U.S. production is expected to remain broadly flat in H2, while Chile and Peru have some room for sequential improvement. SMM's sample of major Mexican mines, however, is expected to remain relatively weak. Based on current SMM estimates, full-year 2026 molybdenum production is projected at approximately 42,100 tonnes in the United States, 38,300 tonnes in Chile and 38,700 tonnes in Peru, while the two major Mexican mines tracked by SMM are expected to produce a combined 14,500 tonnes.

At the mine level, most incremental H2 supply is expected to come from the staged recovery of several large operations, including Chuquicamata and Radomiro Tomic, Los Pelambres, Antamina and Las Bambas. At the same time, mines including Caserones remain exposed to constraints from recovery rates, weather conditions and ore characteristics. Accordingly, even if overseas molybdenum supply improves sequentially in H2, the recovery is more likely to be structural and concentrated among a small number of large mines rather than a broad-based expansion across the industry.

Note: All H2 2026 and full-year 2026 figures above are SMM forecasts/estimates and do not represent official forecasts or guidance from government statistical agencies or mining companies.

SMM believes that while elevated molybdenum prices can improve by-product revenue and project economics for mining companies, near-term molybdenum output at large copper-molybdenum operations remains primarily determined by mining sequence, molybdenum grades, recovery rates and concentrator operating conditions, rather than by molybdenum prices alone.

Based on current production expectations for the companies and mines in SMM's sample, the base case for H2 2026 remains one of modest sequential recovery with incremental supply highly concentrated. If recovery at key mines falls short of expectations, or if disruptions related to weather, recovery rates or ore grades re-emerge, actual supply could still undershoot SMM's current base-case scenario.

[Disclaimer: The above data is calculated by SMM based on public information and internal SMM data. The information provided is for reference purposes only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment or research decisions. Clients should exercise caution in their decision-making and rely on their own independent judgment rather than using this information as a substitute. Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) assumes no liability for any decisions made by clients based on this content.]