International Molybdenum Oxide Prices Firm, China-Overseas Price Spread Widens 【SMM Molybdenum Analysis】

SMM, September 11:

Recently, international molybdenum oxide prices have been consolidating on a strong note, with quote centers in markets outside China moving higher. Meanwhile, China's molybdenum market has been relatively cautious overall, showing a weak and stable pattern. Domestic and overseas market trends have diverged somewhat, with the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets widening further. As of September 11, international molybdenum oxide prices closed at $33.9-34/lb Mo, with transaction prices in Busan, South Korea and some Asian ports already exceeding $34/lb Mo. Converted to China's spot molybdenum oxide price, this is approximately 5,740 yuan/mtu, with the price spread versus China's molybdenum oxide widening to 205 yuan/mt. The molybdenum oxide import window remains closed, while the export arbitrage window for ferromolybdenum and some molybdenum products has opened. At the same time, the rise in overseas molybdenum oxide has stimulated bullish sentiment in China's molybdenum market. Today, suppliers in China's molybdenum market are holding firm offers, spot transactions have improved, and with downstream enterprises holding low inventory, the molybdenum market is mainly consolidating on a strong note overall. As of September 11, SMM 45% molybdenum concentrates closed at 5,425 yuan/mtu, and molybdenum oxide closed at 5,535 yuan/mtu, flat from the previous trading day. Ferromolybdenum steel tender prices were concentrated at 339,000-340,000 yuan/mt, with mainstream transactions in the bulk market concentrated at 340,000-343,000 yuan/mt. The ferromolybdenum transaction center has once again climbed, supported by costs.

On the global supply side, approximately 70% of global molybdenum comes from copper ore by-products, with extremely low supply elasticity and no large primary molybdenum mines coming online in the short term. Regarding domestic mine operations in China, molybdenum concentrate producers are mainly operating at reduced rates. Among them, small and medium-sized mines in Henan and Shaanxi have been affected by safety and environmental protection checks, with weak operating rates and cautious shipments, resulting in relatively scarce spot molybdenum concentrate resources in circulation. Additionally, a mine in Heilongjiang has a quarterly maintenance plan, and the enterprise has not shipped any material so far this month, leaving spot molybdenum concentrate circulation in a tight state. The Shapinggou mine in Anhui and the Caosiyao mine in Inner Mongolia, both large primary molybdenum mines, are still in the construction phase and are expected to come online around 2028. They currently have no molybdenum concentrate output and cannot supplement China's supply in the short term. Overseas, mine operation disruptions persist. Mainstream copper-molybdenum mines in Chile have been affected by winter snowstorms and declining grades, with power supply and transportation hindered. Copper production has been revised down, and by-product molybdenum has been passively cut in tandem. Production is gradually recovering but has not yet returned to previous full-capacity levels. At copper-molybdenum mines in Peru, energy and logistics constraints have not been fully lifted, and operating rates remain at medium levels. According to preliminary metal ore production statistics released by Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM) in June 2026, Peru's national molybdenum production in H1 2026 was approximately 18,800 mt, down about 4.5% YoY. Meanwhile, overseas roasting capacity is tight, spot cargo supply in the overseas market is limited, and suppliers are holding back from selling and pushing up quotes, supporting international molybdenum oxide to consolidate at highs. News-driven disruptions have amplified price fluctuations. Based on SMM data calculations, global molybdenum concentrate production in 2026 totaled approximately 304,000 mt in metal content, down 0.65% YoY, diverging from expectations at the start of the year.

On the demand side, according to data released by the World Steel Association (worldsteel) on August 24, global crude steel production across 70 countries reached 149.2 million mt in July 2026, edging down 0.3% YoY, with notable regional divergence: North America produced 9.6 million mt of crude steel, up 4.9% YoY; the EU-27 produced 10.5 million mt, up 3.8% YoY. Steel production in Europe and the US remained resilient, supporting rigid procurement of stainless steel and specialty steel. According to World Stainless Association data, global stainless steel melt shop production reached 33 million mt in H1 2026, up 5% YoY, with US stainless steel production at 1.1 million mt, up 3.2% YoY. Overseas stainless steel capacity continued to release steadily, and phased restocking drove active inquiries, supporting stronger prices in the overseas market. In China, amid the broader context of structural adjustments at steel mills toward "general-purpose, specialty, and premium" products, and boosted by incremental molybdenum-bearing steel demand from downstream petrochemical equipment, wind power installations, and shipbuilding, demand for molybdenum-bearing steel remained solid. From January to August, total domestic ferromolybdenum steel tender volume reached approximately 112,300 mt, up 8.6% YoY. As of now, total steel mill tenders in September have already exceeded 8,000 mt. In late September, steel mills will stockpile ahead of the holiday, and tender activity is likely to increase. This week, the transaction center of domestic steel mill tenders also edged higher. Today, tender prices at major domestic steel mills were concentrated at 339,000-340,000 yuan/mt, up approximately 2,000 yuan/mt WoW.

In the short term, the cost floor support from tightening molybdenum concentrate supply is relatively strong, and the molybdenum market in September is expected to consolidate on a strong note. Meanwhile, SMM believes the global molybdenum tight balance is unlikely to reverse in the short term, and international molybdenum oxide is likely to remain in a strong consolidation. Domestically, tight spot supply of molybdenum concentrate provides bottom support for molybdenum prices, but downstream steel mills' willingness to purchase at high prices is weak, limiting upside room in the domestic market. Whether the price spread can narrow going forward depends mainly on two factors: first, concentrated tender releases by domestic steel mills driving a rapid catch-up rally in the domestic market; second, overseas mine recovery and supply release driving international molybdenum oxide prices to pull back. The key risk is that if overseas steel demand weakens, international molybdenum oxide could pull back from highs, with the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets narrowing accordingly. However, caution is needed as downstream steel mills face cost pressure, and resistance to upward cost pass-through is significant. The market may continue to see a divergence pattern of strong ore and weak ferromolybdenum. Going forward, close attention should be paid to new supply from domestic mines, the implementation of concentrated steel mill tenders, and changes in smelter operating rates. If steel tender prices struggle to approach the cost line, the risk of production cuts at the smelting end could further intensify, and prices will likely continue to consolidate at highs amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers.