The European Central Bank's Second Rate Cut This Year; Increased Pace of Aluminum Ingot Inventory Reduction [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, Sep 13: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,750 yuan/mt, with the highest at 19,785 yuan/mt, the lowest at 19,710 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,745 yuan/mt, an increase of 20 yuan/mt, up by 0.10%. On Thursday, LME aluminum opened at $2,377.5/mt, reached a high of $2,427.5/mt, a low of $2,374.5/mt, and closed at $2,414/mt, up $34.5/mt, an increase of 1.45%.
Summary: On the macro front, a US Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, the European Central Bank has cut rates again, and China continues to expand its consumption market, driving demand. On the fundamentals side, there has been a reduction in overseas supply, coupled with the arrival of the peak consumption season, leading to a revival in demand and continuous inventory reduction. In the short term, positive factors from both the macro and fundamentals side converge, which may cause aluminum prices to fluctuate upward. However, it is still necessary to observe the sustainability of the consumption recovery and changes in supply capacity in the future.