SMM Lead Market Morning Comment (July 12)

In 2023, global lithium resource production reached 107.7 thousand tons of LCE, marking a 39% year-on-year growth. Australia, Chile, and China were the top producers, with Australia leading the way at 35.8 thousand tons. The top ten companies accounted for 81.9% of the total market supply. China, the largest net importer of lithium resources, saw a significant increase in imports, with the import volume reaching 429.9 thousand tons and the total import value reaching $14.98 billion. Of this, 80.1% of the total import volume came from Australia.

This week, China’s “Two Sessions” will end, while the US election is still underway. In terms of macro data, the key data due this week include the US non-seasonally adjusted annualised CPI rate in February, the monthly seasonally adjusted CPI rate in February, the monthly retail sales rate in February, the annualised PPI in February, and the one-year inflation rate expectation in March.

According to SMM research, as of March 5, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills that mainly produce building materials was 44.28%, an increase of 10.52 percentage points from the previous month.

According to reports by foreign media, Guinea’s trade unions submitted a notice on February 22 to start an indefinite strike nationwide on February 26.

The mining sector in Jamaica experienced an approximate 23.6 per cent growth during the final quarter of 2023.

LME lead opened at $2,039.5/mt on Monday, hitting a low of $2,031/mt, but hiked to a high of $2,057.5/mt amid falling US dollar index and non-ferrous metal price gain, and finally closed up $17.5/mt or 0.86% at $2,055.5/mt.

Overall, in the domestic market, basic metals such as aluminum oxide and nickel fell, while other metals showed slight increases. LME metals fluctuated, with aluminum, nickel, and tin falling, and other metals rising slightly. Lithium carbonate fell after reaching a new high, while industrial silicon rose. The black metal sector closed lower, with coke, stainless steel, and coal falling, and gold and silver in Shanghai rose. In terms of spot and fundamentals, stainless steel prices rose due to high opening of steel mill prices, but with weak consumption demand and increased production, market confidence is low. For lithium carbonate, limited supply and rising prices for scattered orders are reported.

This week, China's "Two Sessions" will be held. The market will keep an eye on the policy direction conveyed by the meeting.

Pr-Nd oxide price extended losses last week.

Zinc prices fluctuated around 20,500 yuan/mt, and there will be still room for price gains.