During the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, about 60% of the 25 secondary lead sample smelters surveyed by SMM will not suspend production and will maintain normal operations, with limited overall production cuts. By region: in north China, 2 of 4 smelters will maintain normal production and 2 are currently shut down; in northwest China, 1 of 3 smelters halted production before the holiday due to critically low raw material inventories and tentatively plans to resume production on October 8 with October production plans undecided, 1 will resume operations next Monday after temporary maintenance, and 1 is shut down for maintenance due to equipment failure; in southwest China, 3 of 4 smelters are operating normally and 1 will take a normal holiday with output reduced by about 200 mt, while another has its secondary crude lead production line idle; in south China, 1 smelter plans to close for 1 day during Mid-Autumn Festival and 7 days during National Day, resuming production on October 8; in east China, 5 of 8 smelters will not take holidays, with 1 planning to cut refined lead production by 2,000 mt and 2 currently shut down; in central China, 2 of 4 smelters are operating normally, 1 will take statutory holidays and resume production on October 8 with alloy production expected to fall by over 700 mt, and 1 is currently shut down. Overall, the confirmed production loss due to holidays is about 3,000 mt, with production resumptions concentrated on October 8.
On the price front, as of September 24, the most-traded SHFE lead contract closed at 16,270 yuan/mt, down 0.79% on the day, showing a retreat after rapid rise this week; the SMM average price of #1 lead ingot was 16,275 yuan/mt (September 23), and the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,200 yuan/mt, at a discount of 75 yuan/mt to #1 lead; in the week of September 17, the weekly operating rate of secondary lead fell to 32.90%, down 6.55 percentage points WoW; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions stood at 66,000 mt (September 23), destocking by 6,200 mt from September 14.
Looking ahead, the contraction in secondary lead supply and the destocking of social inventory provide bottom support for lead prices. SMM expects the most-traded SHFE lead contract to trade in the range of 16,000-16,450 yuan/mt in the short term. If smelters resume production in a concentrated manner after the holiday, imported lead continues to flow in, and downstream cargo pick-up weakens, lead prices face the risk of retreating after a rapid rise; if the scrap battery cost line remains firm and destocking continues, lead prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs. Data source: Except for public information, all other data are SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.
![How are secondary lead smelters planning their production schedules for the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival & National Day holiday? [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/msNEk20251217171722.jpg)
![Imported crude lead continues to arrive at ports, while domestic secondary crude lead remains tight [SMM Secondary Crude Lead Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/lIHfM20251217171721.jpeg)
