【Breakthrough in Solid-State Battery R&D: Sulfide Electrolytes】

[SMM Analysis: Solid-State Battery Next Decade Series, 6 of 9: The Ternary Route May Become Great Again] Ternary has been structurally squeezed by LFP in the liquid lithium battery stage, making it difficult for its share to return to the mainstream. Solid-state batteries are catalyzing its "second positioning": high-nickel ternary, lithium-rich manganese-based materials are naturally compatible with solid-state systems, and solid-liquid batteries provide transitional growth. Scenarios such as eVTOL, humanoid robots, and high-end EVs, which have rigid demand for energy density and are price-insensitive, will become a solid foundation for the high-end specialized path of ternary.

[SMM Analysis: Solid-State Battery September Analysis and Quarterly Review: Policy and Capital Heat Up While Material Spot Cools Down; Industrialisation Moves from "kg-Level" to "mt-Level"] In Q3 2026, the solid-state battery industry is at a critical stage of transition from "pilot verification" to "pre-mass production." National-level special plans have been implemented, and the standards system is being improved at an accelerated pace. On the material side, sulphide is experiencing "volume growth with price decline," entering a transitional period of "mt-level" volume ramp-up. On the technology side, solid-liquid (semi-solid-state) batteries are taking the lead in commercial vehicles, energy storage, eVTOL and other application scenarios, while pilot lines for all-solid-state batteries are being intensively constructed. Capital and industry are deeply aligned, equipment orders continue to be secured, and downstream application scenarios are blossoming across multiple fronts. At the same time, risks such as insufficient capacity utilization rate, order delays, and interface and manufacturing bottlenecks remain, requiring a rational view of the pace of industrialisation.

In Q3 2026, solid-state batteries shift from pilot to mass production. National plans and standards advance. Sulfide electrolytes face rising volume, falling prices, moving to ton-scale. Semi-solid batteries lead in commercial vehicles, storage, eVTOL; all-solid pilot lines expand. Capital, equipment orders, downstream grow, but capacity, order delays, and manufacturing bottlenecks persist.