【Breakthrough in Solid-State Battery R&D: Sulfide Electrolytes】

[SMM Analysis: Solid-State Battery September Analysis and Quarterly Review: Policy and Capital Heat Up While Material Spot Cools Down; Industrialisation Moves from "kg-Level" to "mt-Level"] In Q3 2026, the solid-state battery industry is at a critical stage of transition from "pilot verification" to "pre-mass production." National-level special plans have been implemented, and the standards system is being improved at an accelerated pace. On the material side, sulphide is experiencing "volume growth with price decline," entering a transitional period of "mt-level" volume ramp-up. On the technology side, solid-liquid (semi-solid-state) batteries are taking the lead in commercial vehicles, energy storage, eVTOL and other application scenarios, while pilot lines for all-solid-state batteries are being intensively constructed. Capital and industry are deeply aligned, equipment orders continue to be secured, and downstream application scenarios are blossoming across multiple fronts. At the same time, risks such as insufficient capacity utilization rate, order delays, and interface and manufacturing bottlenecks remain, requiring a rational view of the pace of industrialisation.

In Q3 2026, solid-state batteries shift from pilot to mass production. National plans and standards advance. Sulfide electrolytes face rising volume, falling prices, moving to ton-scale. Semi-solid batteries lead in commercial vehicles, storage, eVTOL; all-solid pilot lines expand. Capital, equipment orders, downstream grow, but capacity, order delays, and manufacturing bottlenecks persist.

[SMM Analysis: Solid-State Battery Next Decade Series 9, Part 4: Will It Be Dragged Under the Wheels of PV-Style Industry-Wide Involution?] Solid-state batteries will not face PV-style industry-wide involution in the short term: unconsolidated technology routes, high capital barriers, and yields of only 50%-60% serve as firewalls. From 2027 to 2029, there will be phased risks, including pilot-line surplus and localized price wars on the equipment side; after 2030, if technology routes consolidate, leading capacity is released, and demand growth slows, industry-wide involution could emerge, with intensity likely lower than in PV but with slower market exit. Given the lessons learned from PV, the solid-state battery industry is fully capable of avoiding involution.