Copper semis imports and exports both dropped in Feb

SMM estimates that copper semis imports in February were 28,700 mt, down 6.72% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year; YTD imports through February were 59,500 mt, up 1.9% year-on-year.

SMM estimates that copper semis exports in February were 51,000 mt, a month-on-month decrease of 9.73%, but a year-on-year increase of 7.81%; the cumulative exports from January to February were 107,500 mt, a year-on-year increase of 2.08%.

We expect the import volume of copper semis to decrease in February, mainly due to the extended CNY holiday; the import volume of copper semis is expected to continue to shrink in 2024 due to the substitution for domestic products. Export volume dropped month-on-month in February due to the CNY factor and the continued increase in freight costs caused by the Red Sea crisis. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 1,885.74 as of March 8, a drop of 331.99 or 14.97% from the beginning of February.

In March, with the recovery of domestic and overseas demand, the consumption of copper semis will increase. Therefore, SMM expects that both import volume and export volume will increase month-on-month in March. The increase in export volume in 2024 will help to boost copper consumption.