[2.8 Nickel Morning Meeting Minutes]
On February 7, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 123,860 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 124,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 910 yuan/ton from the closing price of the previous trading day. Intraday trading was weaker than the previous trading day, with a decrease of 25,935 lots in volume and a decrease in open interest of 2,623 lots. This combination indicates that both the long and short sides have reduced their trades and are inclined to wait and see, but the bulls are actively closing their positions. The decrease in trading volume shows that the long position is more rational, and there is no urgency but the ideal price, so the market is mostly falling gently, and the probability of a sustained decline is high. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting announced on the evening of February 1 that the interest rate range for February remained unchanged, and Powell said that the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year still exists, but there is no possibility of interest rate cuts in the short term. From a fundamental point of view, today's spot market is affected by the downstream stocking rhythm coming to an end, the transaction sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, and the supply of pure nickel has increased due to the arrival of some pure nickel. To sum up, it is expected that the follow-up nickel price may fluctuate weakly.
Pure nickel: On February 7, Jinchuan premium was reported at 4200-4400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 4300 yuan/ton, and the average price was increased by 250 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the price of Russian nickel premium was -100 to 0 yuan/ton, with an average price of -50 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Nickel prices fell sharply this morning, and the spot premium showed a slight recovery as a whole, mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival, some manufacturers and freight have been on holiday, and the spot market supply is tight. Today's nickel bean price is 120,400-120,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the spot price of the previous trading day, and the price difference between nickel beans and nickel sulfate today is about -1,318 yuan/ton. (The price of nickel sulfate is 1318 yuan/ton higher than the price of nickel beans).
Ferronickel: On February 7, the average price of SMM8-12% high-nickel pig iron was 932.5 yuan/nickel point (ex-factory tax included), which was flat compared with the previous working day. From a fundamental point of view, on the supply side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, some iron mills entered the shutdown stage in January, and it is expected that China's high-nickel pig iron production will be further reduced in February. In addition, according to SMM research, the inventory of ferronickel at the end of January fell by 1.78% month-on-month. On the demand side, most of the steel mills have completed the pre-holiday reserve, and some steel mills have no pre-holiday reserve demand and are expected to replenish the warehouse after the year. Also affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of steel mills will decline during February. To sum up, the current supply and demand of ferronickel is still weak, and it is expected that the output increment of subsequent steel mills will be limited, and the loose supply of ferronickel will be difficult to change, and it is expected that the rebound space of ferronickel prices is limited.
Nickel sulfate: On February 7, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulfate index price was 26,963 yuan/ton, flat from the previous working day, and the price of battery-grade nickel sulfate was 26,800-27,600 yuan/ton, the average price was the same as the previous working day. Today, the price of nickel sulphate is stable. Approaching the Spring Festival, the current inquiry transaction activity is low.
Stainless steel: On February 7, according to SMM research, today's stainless steel futures fluctuated and fell, and the spot price was flat compared with yesterday. Approaching Chinese New Year's Eve, stainless steel spot traders have entered the holiday, and stainless steel spot transactions are suspended.