China Stainless steel output in October and forecast for November

SMM's survey shows that in October 2023, China's total stainless steel production was approximately 3.139 million mt, down 2.58% MoM but up 3.94% YoY. Specifically, Series 200 production was about 982,500 mt, up 3.20% MoM but down 4.52% YoY; Series 300 was around 1.4715 million mt, down 10.49% MoM and 6.00% YoY; Series 400 was about 685,000 mt, up 9.42% MoM and a significant 61.02%YoY.

In Indonesia, October's total stainless steel production was approximately 360,000 mt, up 2.86% MoM but down 7.69% YoY.

In October, the stainless steel prices declined due to unmet consumption demand in September and high inventory. High raw material costs squeezed steel mill profits, pushing some mills to reduce October production. The Series 200, with smaller cost fluctuations and less profit reduction, was more price-acceptable to consumers, causing some Series 300 production lines to switch to Series 200, increasing Series 200 production by about 30,000 mt in October. Series 400 production also increased by about 59,000 mt as some steel mills resumed production lines.

In November, while stainless steel inventories remained high, a de-stocking trend emerged. Some domestic steel mills announced production cuts, while Tsingshan in Indonesia switched some high-grade nickel matte lines to NPI, boosting the country's stainless steel production by roughly 27.78% MoM.

China’s stainless steel production is projected to be around 2.994 million mt, down 4.62% MoM. By series, Series 200 production could be approximately 918,500 mt, down 6.51% MoM; Series 300 might be around 1.4165 million mt, down 3.74% MoM; and Series 400 could be around 659,000 mt, down 3.8% MoM.