Citigroup, Bank of America See Copper Surplus in 2023, But Copper Shortage In the Long Run Will Be Stubborn

BHP reported on October 20 that copper production totalled 400,700 tonnes in the quarter ended September 30, 2026, down 19% both year on year and quarter on quarter. The decline reflected planned lower grades, maintenance, severe weather in Chile and operational disruptions. BHP maintained its FY2027 copper production guidance at 1.65–1.80 million tonnes for the year ending June 30, 2027. Escondida produced 252,600 tonnes, down 23% year on year and 19% quarter on quarter, as lower feed grades, scheduled maintenance, severe weather and a temporary suspension following September’s fatal accident weighed on output. Its full-year guidance remains 1.00–1.10 million tonnes. Spence produced 47,400 tonnes, down 15% year on year, while Copper South Australia’s output fell 16% to 60,700 tonnes. Carrapateena’s damaged underground conveyor has returned to full capacity. Antamina’s production, on BHP’s attributable basis, rose 18% to 40,000 tonnes, partly offsetting declines elsewhere. BHP also approved US$800 million in pre-commitment funding for Escondida’s new concentrator, covering further engineering, permitting and execution readiness. Recovery across its major operations will be key to meeting full-year guidance.

[Latest GACC data] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs (GACC), China's copper foil exports in September 2026 were 8,651.8 mt, up 30% MoM and up 67.2% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to September 2026 totaled 62,069.3 mt, up 64% YoY. (HS: 74101100, 74102190)