CITI Research Lowers Price Forecast for Nickel, Aluminium and Zinc in 2023-2024 But Bets on Higher Copper Prices

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, intraday purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai market rebounded notably. Before the weekend, some downstream buyers and traders showed stockpiling demand, driving an improvement in market transactions compared with the previous period. Meanwhile, the backwardation structure in the price spread between futures contracts narrowed from earlier levels, easing the marginal pressure on suppliers to roll positions and reducing their willingness to sell at low prices. After some cargoes at premiums around 200 yuan/mt were traded in early trading, available supply in the Shanghai market tightened further, prompting suppliers to raise quotes and lending support to spot premiums. That said, absolute SHFE copper prices remain elevated, and downstream purchases are still driven mainly by rigid demand and restocking at lower prices, with limited willingness to chase cargoes at high premiums. Overall, with the release of pre-weekend stockpiling demand, the narrowing backwardation structure, and tight availability of spot cargoes, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to remain at a premium next week, with the overall center likely to edge up further, though upside room will remain constrained by high copper prices and downstream acceptance.