SMM Evening Comments (Apr 6): Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Closed Mostly with Losses on Signs of Economic Slowdown

SHANGHAI, Apr 6 (SMM) - Shanghai nonferrous metals closed mostly with losses in day trading. On the macro front, the US ADP employment data came in at 145,000 in March, lower than expected, and the US Markit US Services PMI in March also fell short of the forecast at 52.6. ISM’s manufacturing PMI in March stood at 51.2, below the expectations. These are signs of an economic slowdown, and thus the negative market expectations weighed on risk assets.

SHFE copper fell 0.94%, aluminium dropped 0.69%, lead rose 0.13%, zinc lost 1.75%, tin tumbled 5%, and nickel shrank 2.79%.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE 2305 copper closed down 0.94% or 650 yuan/mt at 68,520 yuan/mt, with open interest down 5,009 lots to 165,003 lots.

In the last trading day of this week, this month and this quarter, the transactions in spot market were scarce. There were few sellers in the market, but some traders still quoted low to purchases actively. Nevertheless, most goods holders held firm to their prices as they awaited the arrival of a new quarter. It is expected that spot trading will improve next week.

Aluminium: The most-traded SHFE 2305 aluminium closed up 0.69% or 130 yuan/mt at 18,580 yuan/mt, with open interest down 7,768 lots to 203,448 lots.

The market is now worried about overseas economic recession. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts will escalate amid inflation expectations and recession fears. If the US Fed continues to raise interest rates, this will pose threat to aluminium prices in the long run. However, if interest rate hike slows down, high inflation will persist, which will accelerate economic recession. In the short term, aluminium prices will come under downward pressure amid overwhelming bearish factors.

Lead: The most-traded SHFE 2305 lead closed up 0.13% or 30 yuan/mt at 15,230 yuan/mt, with open interest down 1,543 lots to 53,097 lots.

As SHFE lead prices picked up amid tight supply of lead ingots, goods holders were firm to their premiums. At the same time, large and medium-sized enterprises basically signed long-term orders instead of making retail purchases. As a result, the trading in the spot market was still slack.  

Zinc: The most-traded SHFE 2305 zinc closed down 1.75% or 395 yuan/mt at 22,135 yuan/mt, with open interest up 8,226 lots to 103,442 lots.

Zinc prices collapsed today, which encouraged downstream enterprises to ramp up purchases, allowing transactions to improve. But some downstream buyers held back from purchasing as they were still bearish on the prices.

Tin: The most-traded SHFE 2305 tin closed down 5% or 10,260 yuan/mt at 194,860 yuan/mt, with open interest up 4,132 lots to 59,933 lots.

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2305 nickel closed down 2.79% or 4,970 yuan/mt at 173,350 yuan/mt, with open interest up 1,636 lots to 75,475 lots.

In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel was quoted in premiums of 8,500-8,800 yuan/mt, with an average of 8,650 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. NORNICKEL nickel was in premiums of 5,900-6,500 yuan/mt, with an average of 6,200 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt from the prior trading day. Nickel spot prices were on the wane, and the trading was brisk. For nickel briquette, the prices stood between 177,000-178,100 yuan/mt, down 2,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[Disclaimer: The above representation and data is based on market information SMM believes to be reliable at the time of acquiring as well as the comprehensive assessment by SMM research team, and any and all information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute a direct recommendation for investment or any decisions in any form and clients shall act on their own discreet and any decisions made by clients are not within the responsibility of SMM.]