Simmering Macro Uncertainty to Keep Aluminium Prices Rangebound

Recently, five government agencies, including the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission and the Zhongguancun Science Park Administrative Committee, announced the list of projects selected for Beijing’s New Technologies, New Products, and New Services (the 21st batch overall). Two key automotive lightweighting technologies submitted by Chalco Materials Research Institute were successfully selected: “Development and Industrialisation of Key Technologies for Integrated Battery Swapping Assembly at the Bottom of New Energy Heavy-Duty Trucks” and “Research and Application of Key Technologies for Aluminum-for-Steel Substitution in All-Aluminum Auto Body Lightweighting.” They were classified under the high-end equipment and new manufacturing technologies category. Among them, the battery swapping assembly technology independently developed the 6E21 aluminum alloy, which has been deployed in scenarios such as trunk logistics, ports, and mining areas. The all-aluminum auto body technology achieves a 20%–30% weight reduction for body structural components, and the related achievements have been mass-produced in aluminum structural parts for auto bodies of mainstream NEVs in China.

[Aluminum Ingot Continues Destocking, Providing Bottom Support; Strait of Hormuz Situation Disrupts Aluminum Market Sentiment] Overall assessment: macro sentiment fluctuated, US-Iran negotiations seesawed, and navigational instability in the Strait of Hormuz lingered. Fundamentals side, China’s aluminum ingot inventory destocking trend continued, providing bottom support for aluminum prices. Outside China, however, driven by new capacity and production resumptions, daily average aluminum production was expected to keep rebounding. Domestic demand side, the MIIT stated that over the next five years, it would accelerate the development of emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, low-altitude economy, new-type energy storage, and intelligent robots, which would drive demand for industrial aluminum semis in the long run. But in the short term, the inflection point between slack and peak seasons was not yet clear, and the market held a wait-and-see attitude toward peak-season demand. Aluminum prices were expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the near term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Narrowly Recover, Spot Edges Up with Costs] Overnight, the most-traded aluminum alloy 2610 contract opened at 23,160 yuan/mt, with a high of 23,250 yuan/mt, a low of 23,030 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,220 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan, or 0.39%.