Manganese Ore Market is Cold and Prices Remain Stable Before CNY

[SMM Express] Recent developments across South Africa's Bushveld Complex indicate that operational optimization, rather than new mine development, is becoming an increasingly important driver of chrome production growth. As producers seek to maximize value from existing UG2 ore bodies, investments are increasingly focused on improving mining efficiencies, processing performance and chromite recovery to increase chrome output while strengthening overall project economics. Northam Platinum recently achieved a record 1.69 million mt of chrome concentrate production in FY2026, supported by higher UG2 throughput, expanded mining crews and processing improvements at its Eland mine. Similarly, Sibanye-Stillwater has outlined plans to increase chrome production to approximately 2.3 million mt/y by 2033 through optimization of its existing operations, while Southern Palladium's Bengwenyama Definitive Feasibility Study increased projected chrome concentrate output to more than 1.05 million mt/y after improving chromite recovery from 30% to 85.6%. SMM believes these developments highlight a broader industry trend in which producers are unlocking additional chrome supply through operational and metallurgical improvements, positioning chrome as an increasingly important contributor to earnings and long-term project value amid continued pressure on PGM markets.

[SMM Express] South Africa exported 123,310.23 tonnes of high-carbon ferrochrome in June 2026, down 0.32% month-on-month (MoM) and 44.57% year-on-year (YoY), indicating that exports remained broadly stable from May but continued to trail last year's levels. The subdued annual performance reflects ongoing production constraints within the domestic ferrochrome industry despite resilient international demand. China remained South Africa's largest export destination, accounting for 31.56% of total June shipments, reinforcing its position as the country's key ferrochrome market. South Korea ranked second with a 16.63% share of exports. The concentration of shipments to Asian markets highlights the region's continued importance in supporting South Africa's ferrochrome trade, even as overall export volumes remain under pressure.

[SMM Express] South Africa's total chrome ore exports reached 2,403.95kt in June 2026, slipping 0.90% month-on-month but still up sharply by 38.86% year-on-year. The marginal monthly pullback suggests export volumes are levelling off after a period of strong growth, even as the scale of the annual gain confirms that underlying external demand for South African chrome ore remains robust. China remained the dominant destination, absorbing 67.61% of June's total export volume, underscoring how concentrated South Africa's chrome ore trade continues to be around Chinese ferrochrome demand. Singapore and the UAE followed as the second- and third-largest destinations, at 7.85% and 7.82% respectively, together accounting for a modest but notable share outside the core China-linked trade flow.