China Coke Exports Likely to Fall in July with Expected Production Cuts in India

SHANGHAI, Jul 21 (SMM) - The General Administration of Customs recently released the coke import and export data for June 2022.  The export volume of coke in June was 928,000 mt, a decrease of 2.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 133.4%. The exports from January to June totalled 4.125 million mt. Coke import volume in June recorded 1,000 mt, a month-on-month decrease of 98.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 98.2%. From January to June, the cumulative import was 246,000 mt.

In June, China mainly exported coke to India, Indonesia, Brazil, Vietnam, Japan, Mexico, Austria, Malaysia, and Belgium. The export volume to these nine countries stood at 862,000 mt, accounting for 93% of the total exports. Among them, 297,000 mt were exported to India, accounting for 32% of the total exports, and 165,000 mt to Indonesia, accounting for 18%.

In June, China mainly imported coke from Taiwan, China, with an import volume of 1,000 mt, accounting for 96% of the total imports.

In South Korea, the strike of truck drivers ended at the end of June, and the production of Hyundai Steel and Posco has basically resumed. Among them, the No. 4 blast furnace of Posco's Gwangyang Iron and Steel Plant has been successfully resumed, and the furnace’s capacity has been expanded to 5,500 cubic meters.

In Japan, Nippon Steel said it may reduce the production in July due to the continued slump in the auto industry as well as power shortages.

In India, Indian steel mills usually stop the production for 15-25 days for maintenance in September and October. However, due to the decline in domestic steel demand in India, overall steel inventories increased in June and steel prices dropped 15%. In addition, India imposed a 15% steel export tariff, containing overseas sales, and some Indian steel mills will start their annual maintenance starting July.

In Europe, only ArcelorMittal Steel Group has made it clear that their medium-sized steel mills in France and Germany have plans to suspend the production in July. Other steel mills in Europe still have some profit, which is not enough to push them to take extensive production cuts. 

As such, given that India is the main importer of Chinese coke in June, the demand may contract as some Indian mills are preparing to reduce the production. Therefore, SMM believes that China coke exports in July will keep falling.