Since the beginning of this year, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other track stocks have encountered substantial adjustments, although their fundamentals have not changed much downward, but still can not change their share prices all the way down.
"the adjustment of track stocks lies in the pressure of the domestic and overseas macro policy environment on the high valuation growth sector, as well as the phased style changes caused by the acceleration of earnings growth in some stable growth directions." Jiang Qian, deputy director of equity investment of Oriental Fund, believes that.
In Jiang Qian's view, after early adjustment, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic plate has cleared most of the short-term fundamental risks and pessimistic disturbance factors, and from the long-term development space of the industry does have the layout of performance-to-price ratio.
Compared with pure track investment, Jiang Qian's value growth investment strategy pays more attention to the margin of safety, while taking into account the certainty of short-and medium-term performance and long-term development space. Therefore, in the investment, he tends to choose high-quality targets whose valuation is within a reasonable range, with high-quality growth and more room for long-term development.
Take the new energy vehicle as an example, from the perspective of prosperity, the new energy vehicle market in the three major economies of China, Europe and the United States has all broken out and the industry is in the stage of "global resonance and accelerated development". In terms of medium-and long-term growth space, the global electric vehicle penetration rate is only about 3%, and the industry still has more than 10 times the space.
At the same time, the global competitiveness of the domestic mid-stream manufacturing industry chain of new energy vehicles is also very strong, in terms of capacity scale, industrial chain coordination, technology cost advantage and other dimensions, are in a leading position in the world, in the process of explosive growth of the industry, have a better chance to benefit fully.
With the gradual easing of the upward pressure on the price of raw materials upstream, Jiang Xi pays more attention to the release of downstream demand for new energy vehicles-previously, the market drivers mainly rely on policy subsidies, and the competitiveness of new energy vehicle products in the future is the key to demand growth, which will open up a broad market space for the growth of the industry.
Specifically, Jiang Xi is more optimistic about the investment direction of automobile intelligence in the new energy vehicle industry chain. Because intelligent function has become the focus of automobile manufacturers, intelligent parts are an important starting point for automobile intelligence and luxury, including intelligent driving domain, cockpit domain and other fields.
The next step in electrified architecture is intelligence. With the continuous introduction of L3, L4 and ADAS cars, intelligence will show a very good development trend. Jiang Qian judged that 2022 will be the first year of national or global automobile intelligence, which contains great investment opportunities.
Talking about the future trend of related industries, Jiang Qian believes that the high-end manufacturing industry represented by engineer dividend is on the rise. China's manufacturing industry still has strong global competitiveness in some areas, which also gives birth to new investment opportunities.
"whether it is new energy vehicles or photovoltaic industries, in the past, the pure transfer of overseas industries and the industrial development logic represented by the demographic dividend has come to an end, and now the high-end manufacturing industry represented by the engineer dividend is on the rise." Jiang Qian said.
In offshore wind power, the overall bidding volume of domestic wind power has achieved substantial growth in 2021, in addition to domestic policies such as the transformation of old wind turbines, wind power to the countryside, wind power photovoltaic base, the core factor is that the continuous price reduction of the wind power industry chain has promoted the economic improvement of wind power plants.
Jiang Qian noticed that the continuous low bidding price of onshore fans is due to the cost reduction of large-scale fans on the one hand, and the pressure of competition in the industry on the other. Objectively speaking, the price reduction has led to the rapid growth of wind power bidding and installation, and the profits of wind power plants in 2022 may be affected to a certain extent.
In the field of wind power, Jiang Qian believes that there are great opportunities for offshore wind power. In terms of local installation planning, the growth of offshore wind power stations is expected to be strengthened at the starting point of a cycle of installed capacity growth. For some parts, such as offshore cable, due to high barriers and excellent pattern, the downward pressure on unit profit is less.
In addition, Jiang Qian also mentioned hydrogen energy. Although hydrogen energy is the cleanest energy in theory, it also faces some problems that need to be solved, such as limited application mode and application scenario, incomplete supply chain and so on. In the short term, hydrogen energy still exists as a supplementary form of energy, which belongs to relatively minority energy applications.
For example, countries with more developed industries, such as Germany and Japan, have tried to industrialize hydrogen fuel cells for a long time, but there is still no very good market promotion, indicating that there are still many difficulties. Therefore, it is suggested that we should pay close attention to the development of the industry.