In the first quarter, against the trend, the coal industry rose 22%. Why can the coal industry excel?

一季度行情日前收官，三大指数均收出大阴线，上证指数累计跌幅10.65%，深成指累计跌幅18.44%，创业板指累计下跌19.96%。在连续的下跌中，煤炭板块一枝独秀，在申万一级行业指数中，煤炭行业以22.63%的涨幅遥遥领先其他行业。在国家发改委多次发文保供稳价煤炭市场，重拳整治煤炭市场乱象的情况下，煤炭板块为何依旧如此强势？

It looks like it's bad, but it's good.

Earlier, the NDRC issued a notice calling for further improvement of the coal market price formation mechanism, making it clear that the medium-and long-term trading price of coal (5500 kcal) in Qinhuangdao Port (including tax) is more reasonable, comprehensively considering reasonable circulation costs, production costs and other factors, and accordingly defines the reasonable range of medium-and long-term trading prices in the key coal transfer areas (three provinces and regions of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia).

When the news was first released, the main force of Zheng coal futures fell 9.17% on the same day, and most of the market participants only focused on the maximum price of coal of 770 yuan per ton, believing that coal had lost its price elasticity and lost the opportunity to soar and get rich. But then more and more investors set their sights on the minimum price of 570 yuan per ton: under the background of "double carbon", the main energy of the future will be clean energy, and the situation of wind power, photovoltaic and other racing tracks is very good. On the contrary, coal will be phased out and no one cares about it, and the coal resources of various coal enterprises have been greatly underestimated. At this time, the document of the National Development and Reform Commission undoubtedly set a lower limit for the valuation of the coal mines of various coal enterprises, and gave a dose of reassurance to the coal stocks, reflecting that the trend of coal stocks began to be significantly stronger than that of thermal coal futures in the market.

Under the situation of steady growth, the coal bull may continue.

This year's government work report sets out the expected target for China's economic development in 2022, including a target of GDP growth of about 5.5%. Economic development is inseparable from the growth of energy consumption. Once the stable growth policy is implemented, it will form a strong demand support for upstream commodities, especially energy commodities and some cyclical products, which will be good for coal enterprises in the short term.

Analysts at Changjiang Securities believe that due to the impact of rampant inflation, higher downstream product prices have become an important reason for supporting the current central rise in coal prices: according to estimates, the current coal price ceiling (including tax) corresponding to thermal power, urea, electrolytic aluminum and cement prices is about 90-1700 yuan / ton (including tax), while the acceptable coking coal price ceiling for crude steel is about 3500 yuan / ton (including tax). When the domestic focus on stable growth, the traditional industries represented by the secondary industry may still become the main focus, which is expected to drive coal consumption to achieve synchronous positive growth.

Some star fund managers increase their positions in coal

From the fourth quarter of last year, some star fund managers began to adjust their positions in the direction of coal. Yi Fangda Xiao Nan's Rui Heng flexibly allocated a large number of mixed positions in China Shenhua, becoming one of its top ten new heavy stocks. He believes that a possible reasonable accident caused by the new energy revolution is that traditional energy is becoming more and more valuable-with the promotion of new energy, the supply of traditional energy is becoming more and more tight. In recent years, the capital expenditure of some traditional industries has gradually decreased and the supply tends to contract. In this context, the continuous growth of demand in these industries is expected to bring better investment opportunities.

In addition, Qiu Dongrong, the medium Geng Fund, is also optimistic about the opportunities of the coal industry, and Orchid Kechuang is the number one heavy stock of small-cap value stocks. He wrote in the Fund's annual report: "there is a good investment value in the stock of high-quality assets such as energy and resources. The logic mainly lies in: (1) the policy will continue to correct deviations, recognizing that the pursuit of steady economic growth, that is, the pursuit of energy and resource growth, and the gradual economic deceleration. Demand is still long-term and growing. (2) from serious surplus to supply-side reform, the market clearing situation is better, but the long-term capital expenditure of many commodities at home and abroad is insufficient, the supply contraction is relatively serious, the supply elasticity is insufficient, and the supply recovery is not overnight. The implementation of real and effective supply growth is often reflected in the upward price center caused by shortage. (3) in the medium and long term, under the influence of environmental protection and carbon neutralization factors, the supply constraints and marginal costs will rise in the medium term, the commodity price center will inevitably rise, and new applications will continue to expand, resulting in a significant increase in the value of stock assets. In terms of market pricing and valuation, such companies are regarded as cyclical assets with extremely low valuation, good cash flow, low capital expenditure, high dividend yield and high expected return corresponding to the current price.