World Bureau of Metal Statistics: metal balance report from January to October 2021

Global shortage of primary aluminum from January to October 2021

There is a shortage of 1.366 million tons of raw aluminum from January to October in 2021 and a surplus of 1.271 million tons in 2020. The demand for primary aluminum from January to October in 2021 will be 57.61 million tons, an increase of 4.419 million tons over the same period in 2020. Demand is measured by apparent data, and national blockades may affect trade statistics. Inventories were reported at the end of October to be 1.359 million tons below the level at the end of 2020. LME aluminum stocks stood at 1.4845 million tons at the end of October and 2.917 million tons at the end of 2020. Shanghai aluminium inventories rose in October, with month-end inventories 62000 tons higher than at the end of 2020. A large number of unreported inventory changes, particularly those held in Asia, are not taken into account in consumption calculations.

Overall, global production rose 4.1% from January to October 2021 compared with the same period last year. China produces 32.3676 million tonnes, or about 58 per cent of current global production, although imports of raw materials fell in the early months of the year. From January to October, China's apparent demand rose 6.3% from a year earlier, and the output of semi-finished products rose 6.4% from a year earlier. In 2020, China became a net importer of unwrought aluminum. From January to October 2021, China's net exports of semi-finished aluminum increased 14 per cent year-on-year to 3.976 million tons, compared with 3.513 million tons in the same period last year.

From January to October 2021, Japanese demand increased by 265000 tons compared with the same period last year, while US demand rose by 112000 tons. Global demand grew by 8.3%.

In October, the output of raw aluminum was 5.6352 million tons and the demand was 5.7227 million tons.

There is a shortage of copper supply in the global copper market from January to October 2021.

The copper market has a supply shortage of 188000 tons from January to October 2021 and 691900 tons for the whole year of 2020. Inventories were reported at the end of October to be 133800 tons below the level at the end of 2020. The net deliverable inventory in Shanghai was 25800 tons, while the COMEX inventory decreased by 18100 tons. Demand is measured in terms of apparent data, and blanket blockades may affect trade statistics. Global mine production from January to October in 2021 was 17.69 million tons, an increase of 4.6 per cent over the same period last year. From January to October, global refined copper production was 20.38 million tons, an increase of 1.3% over the same period last year. China (+ 258000 tons) and India (+ 115000 tons) increased significantly.

Global demand from January to October in 2021 is 20.57 million tons, compared with 20.7 million tons in the same period in 2020. From January to October, China's apparent demand was 11.27 million tons, down 7.3 per cent from a year earlier. The output of semi-finished products increased by 1.6%. The production of refined copper in the United States was 808300 tons, an increase of 53000 tons over the same period last year.

The output of refined copper in October was 2.0667 million tons and the demand was 2.0715 million tons.

Global lead supply shortage from January to October 2021

The global lead market has a supply shortage of 250400 tons from January to October 2021, up from 112200 tons for the whole of 2020. Total inventories at the end of October were 34800 tons higher than at the end of 2020. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. Demand is measured in terms of apparent data, and blanket blockades may affect trade statistics.

Global refined lead production from January to October in 2021 was 11.8154 million tons, an increase of 20.4 percent over the same period in 2020. China's apparent demand is estimated at 5.9244 million tonnes, an increase of 1.757 million tonnes over the same period in 2020, accounting for about 49 per cent of the global total. The apparent demand in the United States from January to October 2021 increased by 123000 tons compared with the same period last year.

The output of refined lead in October was 1.2252 million tons and the demand was 1.2446 million tons.

Global zinc market supply shortage from January to October 2021

From January to October in 2021, the global zinc market has a supply shortage of 5400 tons and a surplus of 612000 tons in 2020. Inventories were reported to have decreased by 2600 tons during the January-October period, with a net increase of 42000 tons in Shanghai. London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories are 48100 tonnes lower than they were in December 2020. LME accounts for 37% of the world's total inventory, and most of the metal is stored in warehouses in Asia and the United States. Demand is measured by apparent data, and national blockades may affect trade statistics.

Global refined zinc production increased by 1.2 per cent over the same period last year, and demand increased by 6.5 per cent. Japan's apparent demand is 447400 tonnes, up 45 per cent from January to October 2020.

Global demand increased by 702000 tons from January to October 2020. China's apparent demand is 5.824 million tonnes, 50 per cent of the global total. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics.

In October, the output of zinc sheet was 1.1344 million tons and the demand was 1.0909 million tons.

The global nickel market is in short supply from January to October 2021

From January to October 2021, the global nickel market is in short supply, and the apparent demand exceeds the output by 133100 tons. In 2020, the market has a surplus of 84000 tons. The reported inventory held by the LME warehouse at the end of October was 135000 tons lower than at the end of last year. The total refined nickel production from January to October in 2021 is 2.2918 million tons, with a demand of 2.4249 million tons.

From January to October in 2021, the output of nickel in mines will be 2.2516 million tons, an increase of 238000 tons over the same period in 2020. The output of Chinese smelters / refineries increased by 75000 tons compared with the same period in 2020, and the apparent demand was 1.3786 million tons, an increase of 236000 tons over the same period last year. Indonesia's smelter / refinery output from January to October 2021 was 712500 tons, an increase of 41% over January-October 2020, and demand nearly doubled to 329500 tons.

The global apparent demand increased by 441000 tons compared with the same period last year. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. Demand is measured by apparent data, and national blockades may affect trade statistics.

The output of the nickel refining / smelter in October was 243600 tons and the demand was 268800 tons.

Global tin market oversupply from January to October 2021

The global tin market has an oversupply of 2100 tons from January to October 2021. Chinese demand is calculated on an apparent basis using the reported inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Demand is measured by apparent data, and national blockades may affect trade statistics.

From January to October 2021, it is reported that the output of refined tin has increased by 16000 tons over the same period last year. China reported that production fell to 11500 tons in July, but recovered in the last three months, estimated at 14400 tons in October. Japan's apparent demand was 24500 tonnes, an increase of 43 per cent over the same period in 2020. China's apparent demand decreased by 4% compared with the same period last year.

From January to October 2021, global tin demand will be 321200 tons, an increase of 1.7 per cent over the same period last year. Us apparent demand rose 5.5 per cent year-on-year to 26100 tonnes.

In October, the output of refined tin was 30100 tons and the consumption was 29900 tons.