The price is at a high level and the willingness of steel traders to "store in winter" is not strong.

The reporter recently investigated the iron and steel winter storage market and found that the price of steel winter storage hit a record high again, and the overall willingness of steel traders to hoard goods is not strong, and it is expected that the winter storage will be postponed. Industry insiders believe that the demand for winter storage will only be delayed and will not disappear.

The enthusiasm of "winter storage" is not high.

Industry insiders pointed out that according to the analysis of the situation in previous years, this year's steel winter storage has been carried out in an all-round way. But in fact, the enthusiasm of steel trading enterprises in winter storage is not high.

It is understood that the fluctuation of steel prices has increased significantly in recent years, and the uncertainty of making profits through winter storage has greatly increased.

Passive winter storage will increase

"under normal circumstances, only construction steel has winter storage." Geng Liwei, general manager of Detian International Trade Development Co., Ltd., told reporters, "Winter Storage can be regarded as raw material hoarding by downstream customers of steel mills around the Spring Festival."

According to Geng Liwei, winter storage is generally divided into active winter storage and passive winter storage. Active winter storage is for steel traders to take the initiative to buy and hoard goods for the winter, because they are optimistic about the market after the Spring Festival. Passive winter storage is that steel mills actively promote cooperative customers to hoard goods in order to alleviate sales pressure, and steel traders passively hoard goods in winter in order to maintain relations. In addition, steel mills will introduce relevant policies, such as deferred settlement, mutual protection of quantity and price, preferential payment policies and so on.

Industry insiders point out that winter storage is full of uncertainty, whether steel traders carry out winter storage or not lies in the trade-off and balance between expected returns and potential risks. The annual winter reserves are about 20 million tons.

Average price or downward movement of steel

From the point of view of steel mills, although there is less demand for steel in building materials at present, production is limited in winter and the policy strictly controls production, so it is expected that it is difficult for steel prices to fall sharply.

The agency expects the average price of steel to move down in 2022. In the context of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the supervision of price speculation and other behaviors will be strengthened, the upward price of steel will be restricted to a certain extent; the price of raw materials will return rationally, the cost will move down, and the supporting role of steel price will be weakened.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national crude steel output in November 2021 was 69.31 million tons, down 22.0% from the same period last year. From January to November in 2021, China's crude steel output was 946.36 million tons, down 2.6% from the same period last year.

On December 29, 2021, the 14th five-year Plan for the Development of Raw material Industry jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources clearly formed 5-10 industrial chain leading enterprises with ecological dominance and core competitiveness. more than five world-class advanced manufacturing clusters have been formed in the field of raw materials. The comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel has been reduced by 2%; the emission intensity and total amount of pollutants per unit output value of key industries have been reduced; and the comprehensive utilization rate of solid waste such as industrial waste residue has been further improved.