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In the third week of November, the spot prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin and nickel, the six major industrial metals of the London Metal Exchange, exceeded futures prices one after another, resulting in a "spot premium". This is the first time this has happened since 2007. Among them, the spot premium of copper and tin is at a record high.
As an indispensable metal in the energy transformation supply chain, it is generally believed that the supply and demand of metals in Europe is extremely unbalanced, which is very disadvantageous for the region to deal with climate change and promote emission reduction.
The supply of "green" metals continues to be tight.
Metals for clean energy applications are called "green" metals. In recent years, with the rapid development of electric vehicles, solar energy, wind energy, energy storage and other industries, the prices of "green" metals such as copper, nickel, manganese, cobalt and lithium continue to rise. It is understood that the European Union in the "European Green Agreement" listed 30 kinds of energy transformation essential "green" metals, including copper, cobalt, lithium, manganese, nickel, neodymium and so on. Since the beginning of this year, the price of these metals has increased several times compared with 2011.
The (IEA) of the International Energy Agency pointed out that clean energy is becoming the fastest-growing area of demand for metals, so the "mismatch" between EU climate targets and regional mineral metal supply is becoming more and more serious, unless quickly and thoroughly changed, Europe will continue to face a metal supply crisis over the next decade.
According to IEA, an ordinary electric car requires six times as much metal as a conventional car, and in the current situation, Europe will be in a long-term shortage of battery metals such as lithium in five years' time. According to the World Bank, the energy transformation will require more aluminum than any other strategic metal, which is mainly used in the production of light vehicles, Electroweb and solar panels. By the end of 2030, Europe will encounter aluminum scarcity again.
"with the continuation of the COVID-19 epidemic, in the case of a mismatch between the speed of transformation and the allocation of resources, the supply of resources is facing more obstacles and challenges." Song Ben, chief executive of Eurasian Resources, the world's second-largest cobalt supplier, said.
Metal scarcity or "normality"
In fact, almost all raw materials will face the problem that "the mismatch between supply and demand can not be eliminated". The supply side is restricted by the production capacity release cycle, and it often takes a long time to rebalance supply and demand.
The International Monetary Fund ((IMF)) pointed out that demand growth and supply release take time, causing the prices of copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium to rise year after year, so countries and regions that do not have resource advantages but have huge demand, such as Europe, will continue to be under pressure, which will disrupt or delay the pace of their energy transformation.
IMF predicts that if this situation continues, it will undoubtedly push up the cost of energy transformation in Europe, which in turn will drag down the speed of its transformation. "for Europe, if there is no substantial change in supply and demand, the metal supply crisis will become an insurmountable disease in the region in the medium to long term."
Author: Wang Lin original title: "Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin and nickel." These energy metals are tight in Europe! "
