SHANGHAI, Nov 24 (SMM) – Vale expects to lift iron ore output in 2022, albeit at a slower rate than some analysts are estimating, which may add further volatility to iron ore prices after a roller-coaster year. 

People with knowledge of the matter, Vale’s management plans to seek board approval on Thursday for guidance of between 330 million and 350 million mt for 2022.

That would be greater than this year’s output. The company said last month that the output in 2021 could range from 315 million to 335 million mt. But the midpoint of the 2022 guidance under consideration, if confirmed, would trail the 345 million-mt average of analysts’ estimates.  The company will present 2022 projections for production, capital expenditure and other financial indicators at its annual investor day in New York on Nov. 29.

Vale is currently working hard to recover from its Brazilian tailings dam disaster, which makes it a major swing factor on the supply side. Given that the midpoint of the proposed 2022 guidance is slightly lower than the average analyst estimate, the company’s outlook may offer support to a nascent recovery in iron ore prices.