Eight major brokerage theme strategy: steel, coal stocks can usher in the second wave of the market? The next faucet may surface!

Guosheng Securities: when demand expansion meets supply constraints! Be optimistic about the investment opportunities of scarce coking coal stocks

The essence of the current cycle is that in the process of energy transformation, the demand for products from traditional industries is rigid, while on the supply side, even if the profits are greatly increased and the cash flow is abundant, under the policy constraints and pessimistic expectations of enterprises, capital expenditure on traditional business is also greatly reduced, resulting in a rise in the price center when demand expansion meets supply constraints. Optimistic about coal high profits, high cash flow, high dividends of China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Industry, it is recommended to pay attention to Shanxi Coal Industry, Mountain Coal International, China Coal Energy. Optimistic about the investment opportunities of scarce coking coal stocks, focus on Pingshan Coal shares, Jizhong Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, it is recommended to pay attention to Panjiang shares. Actively lay out the target of Shanxi's national reform and transformation, with emphasis on recommending Huayang shares. Coke mainly recommends Jinneng Science and Technology and China Xuyang Group. [click to view the original article of the research report]

Soochow Securities: steel stocks will usher in a wave of performance and valuation of both plate opportunities

Near the end of the year, the industry has gradually accumulated, taking into account the previous steel plate, black futures prices fell sharply, we judge that the plate is more likely to stabilize gradually. We believe that the advantages mainly include two categories: first, at the industrial level, the carbon peak plan for the iron and steel industry is expected to be introduced in the near future, and we expect that strict control on the supply side will still be implemented; second, the demand for stable economic growth is highlighted, especially the serious decline in real estate data. The need for policy stimulus has increased.

From the perspective of industry fundamentals, short-term high-frequency data performance is general, steel shipments and inventory removal trend is stable, but significantly lower than last year, some steel mills began to step up maintenance efforts. However, what surpasses market expectations is that with the sharp fall in coke prices, the immediate gross margin of steel mills is good, still maintaining a high level of about 800 yuan / ton, and we expect that the performance in the first quarter of 2022 will still be good. If the policy is relaxed and fulfilled, and the superimposed performance exceeds market expectations, steel stocks do not rule out the possibility that they will usher in investment opportunities again.

Continue to be bullish on steel stocks in the medium term. In the context of high earnings history and low valuation history, carbon neutralization is likely to bring the industry supply ceiling, coupled with the raw material side once again contributing cost dividends, iron and steel stocks will usher in a wave of performance and valuation of double-rise plate opportunities. Be optimistic about low valuation plate, high quality long steel and some special steel, recommend Baosteel shares, Maanshan Iron and Steel shares, New Steel shares, Valin Steel, vast specialties, Jiuli Special Materials, CITIC Special Steel; it is suggested that we should pay attention to Minguang, Angang, Nangang, TISCO and so on. [click to view the original article of the research report]

Zhongtai Securities: coal assets need to be repriced and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector.

With the increase in production and supply in the coal industry and the gradual landing of the price restriction policy, the downstream inventory has rebounded to a more reasonable position, and the reduction of coal prices has been significantly reduced. The prices of many coal mines in the main producing areas have been adjusted to 900 yuan / ton, and the risk of coal price adjustment has been fully released. in the short term, with the gradual decrease in temperature, winter demand is expected to continue to release, and coal prices may tend to stabilize after a substantial adjustment.

In the medium to long term, we believe that the constraints on the supply side of coal are still strong. In the context of small annual growth in demand, coal will be scarce resources in the next few years, and stock production capacity may be high profits. Now the mainstream stocks pay dividends according to 50-60%. The dividend yield of coal stocks is still expected to reach double-digit levels, coal assets need to be repriced, continue to be optimistic about the value of sector investment.

Priority is given to those with a high proportion of coal in the market and flexible targets for capacity growth. Thermal coal stocks suggest to pay attention to: Haohua Energy, Yanzhou Coal Industry, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Coal Energy, China Shenhua. Metallurgical coal stocks suggest to pay attention to: Lu'an Huaneng, Ping Coal shares, Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, Jizhong Energy, Shanxi Coking. Anthracite suggests attention: orchid Kechuang. Coke shares suggest attention: Kailuan shares, Jinneng Science and Technology, China Xuyang Group, Shaanxi Black Cat. [click to view the original article of the research report]

Open source securities: in the future, the probability of long-term loss of iron and steel entering the whole industry is low, focusing on two types of investment opportunities.

The core of the weakening steel demand since the second half of 2021 is the sharp tightening of property policies, which has led to the overall weakening of sales, new construction and completion, and steel demand is expected to improve recently as property financing controls have been loosened. In addition, due to the gradual approach of the 2022 Winter Olympic Games, the future Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is facing the possibility of further supply contraction, so steel prices are likely to stabilize and rebound in the later stage after a sharp fall.

From the medium-term perspective, due to the supply side switching from capacity regulation to production regulation, the probability of long-term loss of iron and steel into the whole industry is low in the future. Specific to individual stocks, we suggest that we should focus on two types of investment opportunities: one is the companies whose own product structure has the potential to optimize and upgrade, such as Shougang shares, TISCO stainless steel, etc.; second, the representatives of low-cost advantages in the industry, such as Fangda Special Steel, and so on. [click to view the original article of the research report]

Anxin Securities: the central rise in coal prices is expected to promote the performance growth of listed companies and then drive the rebound of plate valuations.

With the continuous promotion of increasing production and ensuring supply and the gradual implementation of the price limit policy, the supply of producing areas continues to rise. according to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, the national daily output of raw coal reached 11.7 million tons on November 3, an increase of 1.3 million tons over the end of September. At the same time, the inventory of power plants has increased significantly, and port prices have continued to fall. Qinhuangdao thermal coal prices have dropped to 1130 yuan per ton, down 56.4 percent from the high point. At the same time, a number of mainstream coal companies have reduced the pit mouth price to no more than 1000 yuan / ton Q5500, and the current port and pit mouth coal prices are moving towards a reasonable range. However, at present, the supply increment is mainly to ensure thermal coal, and the increment for market coal is still relatively small. With the strong cooling weather in the country, coal demand is expected to improve, which is expected to support prices. Coal prices are expected to enter a relatively stable period in the short term.

From the perspective of investment advice, the current thermal coal price is higher than expected, and the plate valuation is at the bottom of history, we believe that the central rise in coal prices is expected to promote the performance growth of listed companies and then pull the plate valuation to rise. We suggest to pay attention to Lu'an Huaneng, Shan Coal International, Yanzhou Coal Industry, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry. [click to view the original article of the research report]

Huaan Securities: the profit logic of the iron and steel industry can be reconstructed and steel enterprises can further benefit from the cycle.

Manufacturing demand recovery superimposed carbon peak, carbon neutralization background, the profit logic of the iron and steel industry has been reconstructed, steel enterprises have further benefited from the cycle, we are still optimistic about the iron and steel sector for a long time. National defense industry, aerospace industry high scene demeanor superimposed broad domestic alternative space, high temperature alloy, special stainless steel, ultra-high strength steel and other products occupy an absolutely dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the special steel bibcock with high scene demeanor in the industry: Fushun special steel; traditional field leader + hot emerging business target is more favored by the market, it is suggested to focus on stainless steel rod and wire rod and mica lithium bibcock: Yongxing material; And the high-growth leader in the field of cold-rolled stainless steel: Yongjin shares. [click to view the original article of the research report]

Cinda Securities: fundamentals, policy, company face resonance at the right time for the allocation of coal plates at the present stage.

At present, it is in the early and middle stages of a new upward cycle of the coal economy, with fundamentals, policies and corporate resonance, and the allocation of coal plates at this stage is timely. At present, the legalization of domestic off-balance-sheet production capacity is coming to an end: the space for nuclear increase / approval capacity converges rapidly and the threshold for nuclear increase is raised, which limits the short-term production potential of coal enterprises; considering the decline in the willingness and capacity of coal enterprises to build mines and the mining cycle of more than 3 years, coal supply may be difficult to respond to demand growth during the 14th five-year Plan period, and prices remain high. On October 8, the National standing Committee proposed to promote all coal-fired power generation to enter the electricity market, while increasing the fluctuation range of market transaction electricity prices, and gradually dredging the coal price transmission mechanism, which is conducive to the stability and prosperity of the industry.

In addition, foreign countries are also short of capital expenditure on fossil energy under the guidance of the goal of "double carbon". In the post-"epidemic" stage, the economy recovers and the demand improves, and the insufficient output of new energy leads to the shortage of fossil energy supply and the rapid rise in prices. it is easy to support domestic coal prices to rise and fall. At present, under the general reduction of cost and efficiency in the industry and the growth of endogenous extension, corporate profits are expected to rise. In addition, the leading coal companies have strong cash profitability, while capital expenditure has narrowed, and the surplus cash flow is more likely to return to shareholders, improving the income level of investors. The current valuation of the coal sector has not fully reflected the degree of prosperity and sustainability of the industry, there is a large room for repair.

Based on the above, we look at the coal sector in an all-round way and continue to suggest that we should pay attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. It is suggested that we should pay attention to three main investment lines: first, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, the leader of thermal coal with low valuation and high dividend; second, Pingshan Coal shares and Panjiang shares, which have both resource scarcity and remarkable growth; third, Shanxi coking coal and Shanxi controlled coal industry with great potential for extension expansion brought about by the improvement of asset securitization by the state-owned coal group. [click to view the original article of the research report]

Tianfeng Securities: optimistic about the long business cycle of industrial materials driven by global economic recovery in the future

Cost side: iron ore has entered a lower price range, superimposed port ore continues to accumulate, steel mills limit the demand for iron ore, ore prices are expected to remain low. In terms of Shuangjiao, the energy supply of the National Development and Reform Commission is expected to be strengthened in the near future, and coal prices fall rapidly. The comprehensive raw fuel cost opens the downward range, and as the price of double coke continues to decline, the billet cost still has room for further decline.

Demand side: the power limiting factors restricting the release of demand are over, the production rhythm of downstream manufacturing enterprises is gradually returning to normal, and the marginal improvement is obvious; the central bank has introduced carbon emission reduction support tools, and new infrastructure investment represented by new energy is expected to accelerate the release. In addition, October real estate loan data significantly improved, real estate financing also showed signs of easing.

We believe that under the expectation of national economic stability, domestic demand may reverse at the bottom, and the future overseas economic recovery will still bring demand increment; the price of cost-side dual coke will enter a downward trend after regulation and control. Therefore, the bottom of the steel industry may have appeared, and we are still optimistic about the long business cycle of industrial materials driven by the global economic recovery in the future. From the point of view of less impact of production reduction, pay attention to Linggang shares, Fangda Special Steel, New Steel shares, three Steel Minguang and so on; from the point of view of growth, it is suggested to pay attention to: Jiuli specialties, a wide range of specialties. [click to view the original article of the research report]