Multi-sector regulation and control to promote supply and demand to balance coal price "de-dryness and reduce fire"

On November 3, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on coal flow supervision of the all-China Association for long-term Development. Zhao Chenxin, party member and secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission, stressed the need to strengthen supervision to ensure national energy security through solid and high-level medium-and long-term implementation. In addition, at a meeting held by the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association a few days ago, more than 10 major coal enterprises across the country took the initiative to reduce the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in the main producing area to less than 1000 yuan per ton.

Experts said that the NDRC and other departments recently intensive regulation and control, so that high coal prices gradually "stalled". From the market information point of view, since late October, the national pit mouth, port coal prices have dropped significantly. The NDRC predicts that with the increase in coal production in the later stage, the supply and demand situation in the coal market will further improve and coal prices will return to a reasonable level.

Strengthen the supervision of the coal flow of the Changsha Association

From making every effort to increase coal production and supply, to strengthening credit supervision over the performance of medium-and long-term coal contracts, from investigating and dealing with malicious speculation of capital, publishing rumor-mongering information related to coal, and then studying and determining a reasonable range of coal prices, the NDRC has adopted multi-pronged measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices.

Zhao Chenxin said that Changsha coal is not only a "ballast stone" to stabilize the market, but also a "main force" to ensure the use of coal in key areas related to the national economy and people's livelihood, such as power generation and heating. Strengthening the supervision of the coal flow of the Changsha Association and urging both parties to actively implement the contract are of great significance to do a good job in energy supply this winter and next spring and even in the future.

On November 3, the website of the National Development and Reform Commission announced the National Coal Power Unit Transformation and upgrading implementation Plan recently issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau. The scheme proposes that the new coal-fired power units built according to specific requirements should, in principle, adopt ultra-supercritical units with power supply coal consumption less than 270 g standard coal / kWh, in addition to specific requirements. New construction is not allowed for wet-cooled coal power units with power supply coal consumption higher than 285 g standard coal / kWh and air-cooled coal power units higher than 300 g standard coal / kWh under design conditions. By 2025, the average coal consumption of thermal power supply in the country will be reduced to less than 300 grams of standard coal / kWh.

In terms of increasing market supply, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments have taken various measures to promote coal mining to tap potential and increase production, and phased results have been achieved in ensuring coal supply and stabilizing prices. China's daily coal output reached 11.67 million tons on November 2, close to the highest output this year and the second highest so far this year, up about 1 million tons from early October, according to data released by the National Development and Reform Commission on November 3. As various measures to increase production and supply continue to take effect, the country's daily coal output is expected to exceed 12 million tons. On the same day, the storage of coal in power plants across the country exceeded 110 million tons, an increase of more than 31 million tons over the end of September. Especially since October 19th, the coal supply of the power plant has repeatedly reached new highs, with the coal supply exceeding the coal consumption reaching a maximum of 2.3 million tons.

Industry insiders said that with the effectiveness of a package of coal supply and price stabilization policies, the supply and demand pattern of the coal market is developing in a balanced direction.

The central enterprises launched a tough battle to guarantee supply and stabilize prices.

Under the strong promotion of the State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the central enterprises acted quickly to make all-round efforts to ensure energy supply and stabilize prices.

"in the fourth quarter, in addition to ensuring the fulfillment of the enterprise long-term association, China Coal Group also added 16.2 million tons of coal supply task, corresponding to the coal supply in the three northeastern provinces, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and other key areas." A person in charge of China Coal Group said that from October 1 to 27, commercial coal output reached 16.27 million tons, with an average daily output of 602500 tons, the highest in the same period in history.

The relevant person in charge of the State Energy Group said that the group will speed up the processing of coal mine license and nuclear increase procedures, obtain the guaranteed supply mine approved by the license formalities, and reach stable production as soon as possible under the premise of ensuring safety and environmental protection; coal and power units shall not be overhauled without a plan, and the output shall not be reduced without reason; it should be fully started and issued to ensure that the number of combustible days is not less than 7 days; at the same time, maximize the release of transport capacity.

The State Power Investment has formulated the guidance on fuel supply for the group company this winter and next spring, and the next step will urge all units to formulate and improve their own guarantee and supply plans; follow up and supervise the resigning of medium-and long-term contracts, and coordinate the implementation of shipment.

In order to give better play to the role of state-owned enterprises as the "national team" and "main force" in energy and power supply, SASAC has issued measures for rewards and punishments for the assessment of energy supply security this winter and next spring, taking insurance supply as the main indicator for enterprise assessment this year. Implement "one vote veto". Recently, SASAC has studied and drafted an emergency notice to supervise and guide local state-owned enterprises to do a good job in ensuring the supply of energy and electricity this winter and next spring, and supervise the local SASAC to consolidate the main responsibility of local state-owned enterprises. The battle for energy supply for central enterprises this winter and next spring has begun in an all-round way.

Accelerated return to a reasonable range

With a series of measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices to speed up the landing, the effect is gradually showing.

Recently, at a meeting held by the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, more than 10 major coal enterprises across the country have taken the initiative to reduce the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in the main producing area to less than 1000 yuan per ton. According to the NDRC, from the perspective of market monitoring, coal prices in Kengkou and ports across the country have fallen sharply since late October, and with the increase in coal production in the later period, the supply and demand situation in the coal market will further improve, and coal prices are expected to accelerate their return to a reasonable level.

Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities, believes that the driving force of coal and electricity market policy is strong in the near future. On the one hand, for the previous rising coal prices, the policy makes reasonable intervention to ensure supply; on the other hand, by injecting market vitality into the pricing model of the electricity market, the price buoyancy of thermal power becomes higher and the volatility elasticity is enhanced.

"the current price protection and supply guarantee in the coal market show the strength, effect and determination of the policy, and coal prices are returning to a reasonable range." Chen Li said.

Jianxin Futures researcher he Zhuoqiao said that the regulatory authorities launched a strong attack to curb the speculation atmosphere in the spot market, and the release of invisible stocks can partially reduce the imbalance between supply and demand of coal. The moderate increase in coal supply and the decrease in demand after the rise in coal prices can control coal prices within an acceptable range.