The abnormal movement of coal stocks drives up the future price of thermal coal to reach a new high: the plate market is expected to remain optimistic during the year.

Today, the coal sector rose. By the end of the day, the coal industry index was up 3.22%. Among stocks, Pingping Coal and Haohua Energy rose by the daily limit, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, and Orchid Technology rose by more than 7%. The rest of the stocks are generally popular, and the whole plate is close to Jizhong Energy and the future shares are slightly green.

In terms of futures prices, the futures prices of coal "three brothers" are collectively high and fluctuating today, among which the futures prices of coke, coking coal and thermal coal are all at an all-time high. By the end of the day, the main contract for coke was 4105.5 yuan / ton, up about 8.08%. The main contract for coking coal was 3614 yuan / ton, up about 6%, and thermal coal closed at 1692 yuan / ton.

Benefiting from high coal prices, the coal sector continued to rise in the third quarter of this year, but after entering late September, the sector index gradually weakened. Recently, the coal supply policy has been introduced intensively. Sun Qingguo, director of the Safety basic Department of the State Mine Safety Supervision Bureau, said that coal production is expected to increase by 55 million tons in the fourth quarter, with an average daily increase of 600000 tons, which plays a positive role in alleviating the tension between supply and demand and stabilizing coal prices. At present, the market is focused on whether the coal supply gap can be alleviated. In the context of full protection, high coal prices may be under pressure due to increased production capacity, but some institutions believe that coal prices may remain high under factors such as strong winter demand.

Chuancai Securities said that at present, all-out production is the main policy tone of domestic guarantee supply, but although most coal mines have made recent efforts to increase production and guarantee supply, the production release is relatively limited. Superimposing the impact of torrential rain on coal mine production in Shanxi, the supply in the producing area is still tight, and it will take time to restore production capacity as soon as possible. At the same time, thermal coal prices continue to rise, the main contract has reached 1600 yuan / ton, we can see that the effect of the guarantee and supply policy still takes some time. It is basically foreseeable that coal will continue to be in short supply in the medium term in the future. Overall, the continued strong demand in winter has made the month-on-month rise in Q3 and Q4 coal prices a high probability event, and we remain optimistic about the plate market during the year. Zhongzhou futures reminded that from a fundamental point of view, the coal production in September is still lower than expected, all links of inventory is still at a historical low, the contradiction between supply and demand has not changed significantly. Considering that in the past two days, the guarantee and supply docking meetings and special meetings in Shandong, Shanxi, Hubei and other places are still being carried out one after another, and the policy uncertainty is strong.

According to the recently released three-quarter report of coal listed companies, Meijin Energy is expected to make a profit of 323% Mel 389% in the first three quarters, while China Coal Energy expects its net profit in the first three quarters to increase by 171% Mel 199.4% compared with the same period last year. Shanxi Coking Coal expects the current net profit in the first three quarters to grow by 65% muri 115% compared with the same period last year. Jizhong Energy expects the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies to increase by 52.06% to 76.39% in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year. Jingyuan Coal Power expects that the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters will increase by 21.56% over the same period last year. Individual stock companies generally pointed out that the change in performance is mainly due to the rise in coal prices and the increase in coal sales compared with the same period last year, affecting the improvement of the company's operating efficiency.

Guosheng Securities believes that the essence of the current cycle is that the demand for products from traditional industries is rigid in the process of energy transformation, while the supply side is under policy constraints and pessimistic expectations of enterprises. even if the enterprise has a big increase in profits and abundant cash flow, it is also significantly reducing its capital expenditure on traditional business, resulting in a sharp rise in prices when demand expansion meets supply constraints. We believe that the cycle is the cognitive change of investors. At present, the market acceptance of the sharp upward movement of the coal price center is gradually increasing, the coal industry is in the stage of being gradually excavated by investors, and valuation repair has begun.