The German general election is full of suspense. Where will Germany go in the "post-Merkel era"?

Federal elections are being held in Germany on Sunday local time. After Angela Merkel, who has been in power for four consecutive terms, confirmed that she would no longer run, the election became the most unpredictable general election in Germany in 16 years and will determine the future direction of Europe's largest economy.

Voting in the general election will close at 18:00 local time (24:00 Beijing time) on Sunday, followed by exit polls. However, German officials will not announce the final election results for several weeks.

At the same time, the rivalry between the German parties is far from over: the CDU / SPD and the Social Democratic Party, which have joined forces three times in the previous four elections, are unlikely to reunite, which means that the shape of the ruling coalition will face more variables in the future. The parties will test and negotiate with each other in the coming months to determine the final shape of the ruling coalition.

The most neck-and-neck election in 16 years

Judging from the current opinion polls, the support rates of all parties are neck and neck.

According to the results of several authoritative opinion polls, the Social Democratic Party ((SPD)) will get about 25% of the vote, the CDU / CDU/CSU will get 22% of the vote, and the Green Party (Greens) is expected to get 15% of the vote. This was followed by the pro-business Liberal Democratic Party ((FDP)) and the far-right AfD ((AfD),), both with 11% of the vote. The far-left Die Linke party won 6 per cent of the vote.

The result is very different from that of previous elections, in which Merkel's CDU / CSU won relatively easily, and the election suspense is often focused on who the CDU / CSU will choose as allies.

A survey conducted last week by the Aronsbach Institute, a German pollster, showed that after Merkel gave up the election, most voters were caught in a difficult choice. The survey shows that 40 per cent of the 1259 people have not yet decided who they will vote for-most are not interested in prime minister candidates or their party.

Carsten Nickel, deputy director of (Teneo Intelligence), a political risk consultancy, said: "our polls show that up to 40% of voters have not yet made a decision, which finally reminds us that German politics is at this watershed moment." After 16 years of stable, continuous and fully predictable campaigning, all these certainties have disappeared, and what we are seeing is a close campaign. "

Who will be Merkel's successor?

For the CDU / CSU, which has previously led the ruling coalition, Merkel's departure is undoubtedly a heavy blow. Although Merkel has been trying to canvass votes for her "successor" Amin Raschett (Armin Laschet), Raschett has clearly failed to win the favor of all Merkel supporters.

Thomas Gershwin (Thomas Gschwend), a professor of political science at (University of Mannheim) at Mannheim University, analyzed: "the CDU tried to promote Raschett as the natural successor to Merkel, but people did not buy it because he was not Merkel and he was not like Merkel. Many people who like Merkel are not necessarily supporters of her party, so if you change the leader of the party, many people may think,'I may not vote for this party again'. " For other political parties, this part of the lost voters is the object that can be won over.

In mid-July, Raschett's untimely jokes and jokes in flooded areas in Germany were broadcast on television, making his personal approval rating plunge all the way.

Compared with Raschette, the Social Democratic candidate Olaf Scholz (Olaf Scholz) is far ahead in personal support. He served twice as a federal minister in Merkel's government, achieved remarkable political results and won three televised debates on the eve of the election.

Nazmaslav (Naz Masraff), head of European affairs at (Eurasia Group), a political risk consultancy, reckons that Mr Scholz has a 60 per cent chance of winning the post of prime minister, while Armin Laschet, a CDU / CSU candidate, has a 40 per cent chance of winning the job.

How to form a cabinet by alliance has become a difficult problem.

In view of the fact that the parties are expected to get close votes, Germany is very likely to form a coalition government in the future, and this pattern change is even more difficult to predict.

Germany is currently ruled by a "red-black" coalition composed of the CDU / CSU (usually represented by black) and the Social Democratic Party (usually represented by red). However, the Social Democratic Party has previously announced that it will no longer join forces with the CDU / CSU in the new general election, and the break between "red and black" means that the new ruling coalition will face more variables.

Many experts have analyzed that the new ruling coalition may form a three-party coalition-which means that Germany will face a three-party cabinet that has not been seen in the past 50 years. From a party standpoint, the far-right populist party, the German Choice Party ((AfD)), is unlikely to join the cabinet, and the support rate of the left-wing party is low, and the possibility of joining the cabinet is slim.

The Green Party (represented by green) and the Liberal Democratic Party (represented by yellow), currently ranked third and fourth in popularity, are the most likely members of the new coalition.

Maslav of the Eurasian Group believes that the most likely outcome is the so-called "traffic light" coalition led by the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which is made up of the Social Democratic Party (red), the Green Party (Green) and the Liberal Democratic Party (yellow), with a 45% chance. This result also means that the CDU / CSU, which has been in power for more than a decade, will withdraw from the ruling stage.

Next likely is the "Jamaica" alliance led by the CDU / CSU, which is made up of the CDU / CSU (black), the green party (green) and the LDP (yellow), with a probability of 30 per cent.

But this is only the most likely outcome, and if the SPD and the Greens get enough votes, they could govern alone without a third partner-which is what Mr Scholz would like to see. And if the votes of each party are too scattered, the possibility of forming a four-party coalition cannot be ruled out.

Negotiations to form a cabinet in the general election are expected to take months, and the outcome is expected to determine the future direction of Europe's largest economy.