SMM8 March 13: today's trading of non-ferrous metals is mixed. By the end of the day, the main contracts are as follows: international copper down 0.38%, Shanghai copper down 0.4%, Shanghai aluminum up 0.1%, Shanghai lead down 0.58%, Shanghai zinc down 1.5%, Shanghai nickel up 1.47%, Shanghai tin down 1.45%. In terms of copper, in terms of fundamentals, Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, has reached a preliminary labor agreement, but there is still a greater risk of strike in Chile's Caserones copper mine and Andina copper mine. Today, the copper in Shanghai is negative, the KDJ curve is slightly larger than the previous day, and the MACD line maintains a green pillar. The solid column closed above the 5-day moving average, and the Bollinger middle rail support was strong. Today, we will focus on the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in September to judge what consumers expect under the preliminary passage of the draft infrastructure bill, and speculate whether Shanghai Copper can continue to rise.
[brief Review of SMM Copper Futures] Copper trading in Shanghai is close to delivery, mainly to avoid risk and leave the market and once again lose the 70000 mark.
In terms of lead, the operating rate of recycled lead refineries this week is significantly lower than that of last week. First, due to the limited delivery of individual refineries in Anhui due to epidemic prevention policies and transport conditions, inventory has increased and production has slowed down. Second, because of the upgrading of power cuts in Henan, Jinli's dismantling is limited, and production is declining. Although Anhui Avenue resumed production as scheduled, Guizhou Huoqilin also went into production as scheduled to produce increments, but failed to change the overall downward trend of production in the four places. Entering next week, the epidemic and the impact of power cuts may be difficult to improve in the short term, but Guizhou Huoqilin has been put into trial operation this week, and then continued production has gradually stabilized. It is expected that there will still be an increase next week, and the start-up rate may pick up slightly next week.
[SMM survey] Power cuts affect upgrading and the operating rate of recycled lead decreases in the four places.
This week, the impact of power cuts in Henan continued, a number of refineries were affected, whether the subsequent power cuts will continue to depend on the local power consumption situation to be determined: Xinling, Henan Province due to power cuts caused crude lead production has affected electrolytic lead production, this week is still in a state of suspension; Jiyuan Wanyang power cuts throughout last week and this week, electrolytic lead and crude lead production are affected, electrolytic lead production decline, is expected to partially recover next week; Jinli due to power cuts affect the rough refining process, but the production of electrolytic lead is temporarily affected; Yongning gold and lead limited electricity, a small reduction of about 20%. The production of Jinxin in Shuikoushan has partially recovered as planned, but there is still the possibility of a small reduction in production due to insufficient supply of crude lead; Hunan Yuteng completed maintenance this week and production initially recovered; Anhui Bronze Crown ignited this week and is expected to resume part of production next week; Gejiu Chuangyuan production resumed this week, but not yet at full capacity.
[SMM investigation] the impact of power cuts on the continuous electrolysis of lead continues to decline.
Tin, from the perspective of capital, the sharp reduction of positions in intraday trading led to a decline in prices, which basically confirmed yesterday's analysis and judgment. Yesterday, bullish funds used prices to rise to complete the change of hands, the performance of the market for the price of positions in the first increase and then decrease the overall change is not big. Looking back last night, Shanghai and tin opened low and walked low with a substantial reduction in positions, this action has basically announced the end of this round of rapid rise. At the same time, the fall in prices did not trigger the entry of short funds, which also shows that the short side is not confident enough to continue to explore this price. Considering the performance of both sides of long and short funds, we can predict that there is a high probability of price fluctuations in the range of 230000-240000 yuan / ton in the short term.
[brief Review of SMM Tin] after the sharp reduction of positions in Shanghai and tin, the probability of high volatility in the market has greatly increased.
In terms of black series, thread fell 0.89%, hot coil fell 1.42%, coking coal fell 2.74%, coke rose 0.74%, iron ore fell 0.94%, stainless steel fell 1.59%. In terms of coke, the coke market in Shanxi is running strongly today, and the scope of the third round of increase has been expanded. At present, some coke enterprises with limited production in Taiyuan and Luliang areas of Shanxi Province have gradually resumed production this week, with an overall operating rate of 87.3% and a high coke oven operating rate; coke inventory in coke factories is low and the market is bullish; the operating rate of blast furnaces in steel mills has increased compared with last week, and coke procurement demand is good. Overall, short-term coke prices continue to run on the strong side.
[SMM Coke spot Daily Review] the operating rate of steel mills in coke enterprises continues to be strong.
Last Friday, August 6, Hegang issued a price adjustment notice, the purchase price of metallurgical coke was increased by 120 yuan per ton, and the second round of increase in metallurgical coke landed four days later, that is, this Wednesday, August 11, some coke enterprises in Shanxi were the first to launch a third round of increase of 120 yuan per ton. On Thursday, August 12, most of the coke enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei were ready to increase, and some verbally negotiated with the steel mills they cooperated with. Some directly sent price adjustment notices, indicating the same meaning, to raise the price of metallurgical coke for the third round on August 13, that is, this Friday, but as of 1: 00 p.m. Friday, no mainstream representative steel mills responded to this.
[SMM Analysis] the third round lifting and landing of metallurgical coke
Crude oil rose 0.09 per cent in the previous period, and international oil prices fell for a second day on Friday after the (IEA) warned that demand for crude oil and oil products slowed sharply as the global surge in novel coronavirus cases forced governments to resume travel restrictions.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose 0.52%, while Shanghai silver fell 0.3%. International gold prices rose slightly on Friday, supported by concerns about the rapid spread of the Delta variant virus, but gold prices fell for the second week in a row as the resilient dollar limited gains.
"check the metal futures market.
[stock market closed]
