SMM7 March 22: yesterday, the outer disk metal market was mixed, in which lun lead closed higher, hitting a new high in nearly 3 years. Sources say the parent company of German manufacturer Berzelius Stolberg has stopped production at its factory in Stolberg, western Germany, after floods hit last week. In terms of internal trading, SMM believes that the extent of lead ingot inventory accumulation this week may slow down due to power cuts and transportation problems, or lead will run high during the support period. Most of the LME metal markets are red today. As of 09:40, Lun Copper, Lun Aluminum and Lun Ni are up nearly 0.1%, while Lun lead is down nearly 0.1%. On the domestic front, international copper is up nearly 0.4%, Shanghai copper is up nearly 0.6%, Shanghai aluminum is up nearly 0.3%, Shanghai lead is up nearly 0.9%, Shanghai zinc is down nearly 0.7%, Shanghai nickel is up nearly 0.4%, and Shanghai tin is down nearly 0.8%.
In terms of copper, from a macro point of view, yesterday, domestic officials announced that they would release the second batch of 30,000 tons of national copper reserves in late July. After the news was announced, copper prices rose slightly in night trading because the amount of copper sold was less than market expectations. But with the recent spread of the Delta variant, there are concerns that more travel restrictions will be introduced, weakening economic activity, cautious market sentiment puts upward pressure, and copper futures continue to fluctuate. As the impact of domestic smelter maintenance weakens, superimposed imported copper gradually flows into the market, and the supply side tends to be relaxed. With the arrival of the traditional off-season of copper, the performance of copper consumption in the market is insipid, and the fundamentals are for the price of copper.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the amount of copper sold and stored was less than expected during the pick-up period, and the spot rising water of copper continued its downward trend yesterday.
In terms of aluminum, fundamentals, the current aluminum consumption shows signs of weakening, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is still in the de-stocking cycle. Social inventory of aluminum ingots fell slightly by 3000 tons to 829000 tons on Monday compared with last Thursday, and the narrowing of the decline will put some pressure on aluminum prices. The second batch of spindles was 90,000 tons, still lower than market expectations, and aluminum prices stimulated by market sentiment may rise again instead of falling. Need constant attention.
[summary of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] Flood and waterlogging disaster in Henan caused emergency shutdown of local aluminum electrolysis plant and second batch dumping of reserves. Guanxuan failed to meet market expectations.
In terms of lead, the center of gravity of Shanghai lead moved slightly upward overnight, and the bulls entered again, making Shanghai lead recover its 20-day moving average and walk out of Dayangzhu. It is reported that due to the impact of the flood, German lead smelting enterprises stopped production, strengthened overseas destocking expectations, and Lun lead refreshed a three-year high, while the domestic Henan rainstorm event continued to ferment, such as aluminum and other metal production has varying degrees of impact, the lead plate is mainly affected by transport, high lead prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] overnight lead strong concussion regenerated lead sticker expanded
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a small negative column, the upper 5-day moving average turned downward to form a pressure, the lower 20-day moving average to provide support. Yesterday, the state announced the public sale of 50,000 tons of zinc in late July, releasing a policy signal for the country to ensure a stable supply of commodities, and Shanghai zinc fell back. However, low inventory still has support for zinc prices, and focus on inventory accumulation in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] Guan Xuan paid attention to the inventory accumulation in the later period of 50, 000 tons of zinc storage.
In terms of black series, the thread fell by nearly 1.3%, the hot coil by nearly 2.3%, coking coal by nearly 0.8%, coke by nearly 0.6%, iron ore by nearly 4%, and stainless steel by nearly 0.4%. In terms of threads, the steel market is currently in the expected implementation stage of production limitation. there is no doubt that the output of the supply side will decline under the multiple factors of production restriction and power restriction, and there is less stock in the lower reaches of the current off-season. The unaccelerated release of speculation is not only the upward pressure on prices, but also the bullish support of stock preparation expectations, and the fundamentals of supply and demand may be gradually strengthened by the contraction of supply. Short-term steel prices have upward potential, short-term still need to focus on guarding against the risk of upgrading macro-policy regulation.
[minutes of SMM Iron and Steel Morning meeting] Raw material prices are weak and stable, black series pressure production range is expanded, steel prices are expanded, beware of risk of policy regulation and control.
The previous period of crude oil rose nearly 3%, and international oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending the previous session's rally, although data showed an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States last week, supported by improved risk appetite. Us crude oil stocks rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, the first increase since May, according to (EIA) data from the US Energy Information Administration. But oil prices are still rising. Crude oil inventories rose 2.1 million barrels to 439.7 million barrels in the week ended July 16, while analysts expected a decline of 4.5 million barrels.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.8%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 1.1%. Comex gold futures closed down on Wednesday, but held the $1800 mark. Us bond yields continued to rebound from five-month lows, dampening demand for gold. Analysts point out that the trend of the dollar is the main influencing factor here, and traders believe that next week the Fed is likely to announce hawkish comments about future monetary policy movements.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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