The new photovoltaic glass project no longer requires the "jam" of the capacity replacement industry to be alleviated.

Since last year, the price of photovoltaic glass has experienced great ups and downs. As of early July this year, the price of photovoltaic glass 3.2mm coating is about 23 yuan / square meter, which is more than 40% lower than last year's high. However, the expected installation of 40GW in the second half of the year still increases the uncertainty that the supply of photovoltaic glass is tight again.

For now, the worry is expected to ease. On July 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the implementation of capacity replacement in the cement glass industry to ensure the needs of photovoltaic development, and the new photovoltaic Calendering glass project no longer requires capacity replacement. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology predicts that by 2025, there will be a large gap in photovoltaic Calendering glass, and the structural shortage of photovoltaic glass capacity has emerged.

Previously, capacity replacement requirements have been a constraint for photovoltaic glass to achieve faster production capacity. It is understood that as China's glass industry as a whole is in a state of overcapacity, the previous policy requires strict prohibition of filing and new construction of flat glass (including photovoltaic glass, automotive glass and other industrial glass original) projects to expand production capacity. If it is really necessary to build new projects, it is necessary to carry out reduction or equivalent replacement, and formulate a replacement plan for production capacity.

In fact, the supply of photovoltaic glass became a pain in the "neck" of the industry last year. Boosted by the shortage of production capacity and strong downstream demand, photovoltaic glass 3.2mm coating, for example, rose to 43 yuan per square meter last year, while the price "out of control" directly affected the normal production of component manufacturers. Until April this year, due to the low operating rate of component manufacturers and the impact of the current imbalance between supply and demand, the quotation was greatly reduced.

However, due to the long construction period and the production capacity climbing cycle, the supply of photovoltaic glass is still tight this year.

Prior to this, some brokerages reported that with the advent of the peak installation season, photovoltaic glass demand in the second half of the year will be better than the first half of the year, prices are expected to rebound slightly. The price reduction of photovoltaic glass at the end of March is mainly due to seasonality and creating reasonable production expectations. After the gradual approach of the peak installation season in the second half of 2021, photovoltaic glass prices may rebound significantly.

After the cancellation of capacity replacement conditions, the analysis believes that more new capacity will be launched, although the expectation of a price rebound in the short term exists, the corresponding gap will be effectively narrowed in the long run. A photovoltaic module enterprise told the Financial Associated Press that the overall upstream operating rate in the first half of the year is not high, and the industry is generally pinning its hopes on the arrival of the installation tide in the second half of the year. After it is clear that the production capacity of photovoltaic glass is not limited by capacity replacement, the shortage of supply and demand will be further alleviated, and with the further landing of production capacity in the future, the price of photovoltaic glass will continue to decline.