Copper, aluminum and zinc should be thrown into chu? Five ministries and commissions investigated the situation of coal hoarding in Caofeidian Port.

Yesterday, the news that the State Reserve Bureau of China threw chu fell on di. Although there are no official documents for the time being, according to the Futures Daily reporter, the fact that the State Reserve Bureau threw chu has been basically confirmed. Since March at the beginning of this year, there have been rumors about selling chu in the market, and it has been expected for a long time in the non-ferrous industry.

Influence geometry of throwing chu

Since the beginning of this year, the prices of many varieties in the non-ferrous metals sector have risen by a large margin, and the National standing Committee and the National Development and Reform Commission have paid close attention to them, demanding that they closely follow the trend of commodity prices, do a good job in price forecasting and early warning, strengthen linkage supervision of the spot market, standardize price behavior, and maintain the normal order of the market. At this point in time, it is reasonable for the State Reserve Bureau to sell chu, and the reserve inventory released is conducive to pacifying the current high prices and promoting the steady and orderly development of enterprises in the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain. " Shenwan futures non-ferrous metals analyst Hou Yahui said.

According to Hou Yahui, this throwing chu mainly involves non-ferrous metal plates, specific varieties for copper, aluminum, zinc. In terms of selling chu objects, what is different from selling chu in the past is that this time it is not released to traders, but directly to downstream terminal enterprises, and there is a minimum requirement for the quantity of goods received by various varieties; in terms of delivery time, it is at the end of each natural month and lasts until the end of 2021. From the choice of enterprises, most of them are large and medium-sized enterprises of a certain scale, such as receiving at least 500 tons of copper at a time, and the analogy of aluminum and zinc will also have the corresponding minimum quantity requirements. The State Reserve Bureau's direct investment in terminal enterprises this time is conducive to alleviating the current tense situation in the spot market. Enterprise replenishment of inventory can be obtained from both the State Reserve Bureau and spot traders at the same time, and the high rising water of the spot will drop. The situation of destocking has been alleviated to a certain extent. Selling chu means that the hidden inventory is directly manifested in the physical social inventory, and the corresponding spot price will also be weakened by the support of physical replenishment inventory, which is good news for downstream enterprises.

In essence, the establishment of a chu mechanism for non-ferrous metals in China is a policy tool to adjust the relationship between supply and demand in the market, and the main intention of throwing chu is to alleviate the short-term gap between supply and demand and ensure the stable operation of the industry. However, from a historical point of view, the state only sold chu in 2010 in order to prevent the price of non-ferrous varieties from rising too fast. The direct sale of chu in the downstream terminal enterprises will help to directly alleviate the tense situation in the spot market, and the rising water of non-ferrous spot will decline, which will form greater pressure on the futures market in the short term. The biggest beneficiaries will also be downstream enterprises, before the high operation of non-ferrous metal prices eroded the profits of downstream processing enterprises, copper prices, aluminum prices downward transmission process is not smooth, after throwing chu, downstream processing fees will be restored, consumption will also be further promoted, thus there is a certain support for downstream prices. " Hu Pan, a non-ferrous researcher at Haitong Futures, said.

According to Zhang Weixin, a copper researcher in CITIC Construction period, at present, LME inventory is in a state of slow accumulation, domestic explicit inventory is rapidly removed, and bonded port inventory is basically stable. In addition, LME spot is currently in a discount state, domestic spot is rising water state, the import copper premium has hit a multi-year low, but the import loss is still about 700 yuan / ton. Selling chu will slow down the elimination of domestic explicit inventory, weaken the spot premium, and further curb the inflow of imported copper, increasing the pressure on overseas inventories. Therefore, from the impact on the price, the impact on Lun Copper will be greater.

In Hou Yahui's view, the current copper price has begun to decline after setting a 10-year high, and even approached the integer mark of 70,000 yuan / ton at one time. Judging from the current trend, the market is watching and waiting for the Fed to relax its monetary policy. If the economic indicators of major countries such as Europe and the United States continue to improve, such as manufacturing PMI, daily new outbreaks and unemployment can reach the expected level. The Fed may discuss scaling back its bond purchases in the third quarter, which will have a huge impact on the entire non-ferrous sector and even commodities. Fundamentally, the domestic supply of refined copper has slowed slightly, benefiting from the centralized maintenance of smelters and the increase in exports, downstream consumption of copper still has a certain support. Therefore, the sale of chu, is expected to strengthen the downward trend of copper price oscillation, as the consumer season gradually passes, copper prices will face greater downward pressure.

In terms of the impact of selling chu on aluminum prices, Wang Xianwei, an aluminum analyst at CITIC Construction Investment Futures, believes that this is also one of the main factors to suppress the price rebound. It may put pressure on prices in the short term, and after market sentiment stabilizes, price logic will return to fundamentals. At present, the interference on the supply side is slightly less than expected, and the load reduction measures of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan will end at the end of June. However, at present, due to the production reduction in Yunnan, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia and other places, there is a shortage of cash in Gongyi, Southwest and South China. Even if the later sale of chu is certain, it will take time from the auction to the market, and it is difficult to change the tight spot supply in the short term. At the consumer end, the power restriction policy in Guangdong has basically ended, and the early affected enterprises have ended the state of "opening, four, stopping and three", and the operating rate will be increased. At present, the inventory is still in the state of going to the warehouse, and the consumption as a whole is OK. Therefore, in the absence of obvious bearish fundamentals, throwing chu boots into di is quite conducive to the sense of emptying. If aluminum prices overfall, the empty order can consider stopping earnings and leaving the market. Downstream processing enterprises can buy bargain-hunting operations.

Hou Yahui said that in terms of electrolytic aluminum, the State Reserve Bureau has a total reserves of about 830000 tons of aluminum ingots, assuming that half a million tons of chu is thrown, accounting for about 60 per cent of the total reserves. Judging from the current domestic aluminum ingot inventory, it is difficult for the State Reserve to sell 500000 tons of aluminum ingots this time. According to the current market news, the estimated amount of chu thrown by aluminum ingots may be about 300000 tons, with an average of about 50, 000 tons per month. In the current peak season to stimulate downstream consumption at the same time, the aluminum ingot community may not have much increase. Considering that there is still a certain gap in China's imports, the amount of throwing chu may supplement this gap, so the overall disturbance to the balance of supply and demand of aluminum throughout the year is not too great, and the space for the subsequent downward correction of aluminum prices is expected to be limited. The medium-and long-term marginal tight pattern of supply is consolidated and the downstream construction is still operating at a high level. in the long run, aluminum exports are still the main reason for driving consumption this year, under the explicit constraints of domestic production capacity ceilings and carbon peaks, the long-term center of gravity of aluminum prices is expected to remain high.

It is reported that the tight supply pattern of zinc concentrate in the early period has slightly improved, TC processing fees have rebounded slightly, the off-peak power cut-off measures in Yunnan have become looser, and the supply side will gradually become loose. At present, consumption has a weakening trend, both galvanized plate and die-casting plate orders have declined compared with May. "at the same time, the decline in social inventory has narrowed significantly, and inventory is expected to reach an inflection point in late June." Wang Xianwei said that when there are no obvious favorable factors at the macro level, and the fundamentals show a marginal weakening. If the implementation of selling chu, sufficient supply will further slow down the pace of destocking, even inventory inflection point comes ahead of schedule, spot rising water will also be further narrowed. At that time, zinc prices will face greater downward pressure.

Hu Pan also believes that the risk of weakening zinc fundamentals is increasing. On the one hand, the edge of the mine is loose, the rainy season in the south is approaching, and the impact of power cuts is gradually withdrawn, on the other hand, the impact of centralized maintenance and energy consumption and production restrictions in the north will also be lifted one after another, and there is greater certainty in the later stage of supply recovery. Superimposed chu news landed, and zinc prices are expected to be short.

"in the face of selling chu and increasing regulation and control, investors should not panic too much and avoid chasing after the rise and fall. It is suggested that relevant industries strengthen production profit hedging, institutions and speculators focus on the thinking of non-ferrous metals from medium-term strength to wide oscillation, and pay attention to controlling the risk of positions." Guoxin Futures Research and Consulting Department head non-ferrous Gu Fengda said that the landing of chu has a certain impact on short-term prices and rising water, and the time for non-ferrous oscillation adjustment has been lengthened, although it is not too weak for copper, but the rising space is more suppressed by domestic policies and may show a wide oscillation trend after a short-term correction.

Five ministries and commissions investigated the hoarding of coal in Caofeidian Port.

On Thursday, five ministries (the Ministry of Communications, the Ministry of Market Supervision, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecological Environment, and the Ministry of Emergency Management) went to Caofeidian Port to investigate whether there was hoarding in the market, and will focus on households with high temperature, long-term storage and large storage, according to people familiar with the matter. Caofeidian Port is said to have begun to clean up the fire coal on both sides of the passageway. Traders said that the main purpose is to check hoarding and disrupt the market order. On Thursday afternoon, in Guotou Caofeidian, all the ports of Beigang had a meeting together. Each port is required to sort out the inventory of each stack and mark the time of the first stack.

It is reported that last week, under the influence of high temperature weather, the coal heap in the ports around the Bohai Sea appeared the phenomenon of spontaneous combustion, and the risk of coal storage increased. According to the inventory situation of the ports around the Bohai Sea, as of June 4, the inventory of the eight ports around the Bohai Sea in the north was 23.38 million tons, an increase of more than 6 million tons over the same period last year, of which the inventories of Caofeidian Port, Caofeidian Phase II and Huaneng Caofeidian Port increased by nearly 3 million tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory of some ports around the Bohai Sea is on the high side and the risk of coal storage is increasing. on Thursday, five ministries and commissions went to the port of Caofeidian to investigate whether there was hoarding and asked each port to sort out the inventory of each stack and mark the time of the first pile. affected by this, traders' willingness to ship goods will be significantly enhanced, and port inventory may accelerate the transfer downstream.

Wang Xiaonan, senior analyst of Baocheng Futures Power Coal, told reporters that at present, coal stocks in power plants in eight coastal provinces have been alleviated to a certain extent. as of June 7, coal stocks in power plants in eight coastal provinces were 25.18 million tons, an increase of 4.5 percent from the previous week. Once the port inventory is accelerated downstream, it will effectively alleviate the inventory pressure of downstream power plants. In terms of daily consumption, it usually takes until early July to see a significant rise, after which the inventory situation has improved, helping to stabilize demand-side fluctuations.

"at present, although the peak demand season is approaching, the procurement of power plants is relatively restrained. In the case of increased pressure on traders to ship goods, it will shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market, and the port quotation will be loose, further promoting the decline of coal prices." An industry source said.

Zhang Xiaojin, senior analyst of Everbright Futures Power Coal, told reporters that this survey is more to understand the existing storage situation of the port, storage quantity, storage time, general coal structure, have a comprehensive understanding. On the one hand, to avoid the occurrence of spontaneous combustion due to excessive storage time in summer, on the other hand, to find out the inventory situation of traders, we do not rule out the introduction of relevant measures to shorten the storage cycle in order to accelerate coal turnover. In order to achieve the purpose of cracking down on hoarding and disturbing the market order.

In Wang Hsiao-nan's view, under the guidance of the current policy, coal prices are controlled from the source of supply, deliberately guiding port traders to speed up shipments, the tension between supply and demand will be alleviated to a certain extent, and the price center of gravity may fall. However, affected by the crackdown on hoarding and other behaviors, stocks in the upper and middle reaches are tight. If there is no significant improvement in supply in the production areas after July, it will increase the pressure on supply and demand in the medium and long term.