The coal market will usher in the last rebound in the first half of the year.

April and May are the traditional off-season for private electricity, but it is also the peak season for industrial power consumption. From April to early May, coal prices at Keng Hou and the port both rose, exceeding the expectations of market participants. The flat price of port thermal coal rose 31%, and the futures price of thermal coal blocked the limit for many times, reaching a new high in the past eight years.

In mid-May, under the influence of policy expectations, the vast number of coal transportation and marketing and trading enterprises implemented the requirements of the superior meeting and took the initiative to lower coal prices; superimposed traders' fear of high sentiment, and coal prices in producing areas and ports fell. Since yesterday, inquiries for goods in the port market around the Bohai Sea have increased, but users have generally depressed prices, and traders are unwilling to sell at low prices, resulting in a transaction stalemate; there has been an increase in the number of underground anchor ships, but most of them wait for berthing because of price disagreement. At this time, the replenishment of imported coal is limited, and the storage of coal in power plants is still declining; end users will start purchases before "meeting the peak and spending the summer" from late this month to early June, so that coal prices will stop falling and stabilize, and the coal market will usher in the last wave of rebound in the first half of the year.

After the Spring Festival, driven by the global economic recovery and the influence of loose monetary policy, commodity markets have shown a rapid rise recently, with funds continuing to flow into pro-cyclical sectors, among which the coal market with resource attributes has benefited a lot. The increase in demand, the stability of supply and the decrease in imports have led to a shortage of supply in the producing area market, and the rise in pit mouth prices has been accelerated and difficult to control, which has virtually promoted a strong rebound in port coal prices. With the sustained development of the domestic economy and the sustained restorative growth of production, the role of industrial support is obvious; after the Spring Festival, the daily consumption of key power plants in eight coastal provinces quickly climbed to a high level of 1.8 million tons, although it was 20-300000 tons lower than in the cold winter of last year, but increased by 100000 tons over the same period last year. China has won a major victory in the prevention and control of the epidemic, and the economy is gradually on the right track; while the epidemic in foreign countries is repeated again, manufacturing orders are accelerated to return to China, stimulating the growth of domestic power demand. According to the data, in April, thermal power generation increased by 12.5% year-on-year, compared with the previous year's base period and 6.7% year-on-year growth in the previous year. In May, the hydropower is not fully produced, and the pressure of thermal power is still very high.

Since April, coal mine safety accidents have occurred in many places, and safety inspections in major coal producing areas have been intensified; at the same time, environmental protection supervision, overproduction inspection, coal management ticket restrictions and coal-related anti-corruption have been in full swing, and domestic coal production has been curbed. On the other hand, coal pullers at Kengkou are gathered, and the transport volume of users such as power plants, chemical industry, building materials and coal chemical industry is not reduced, prompting the overall market supply to be tight and the price of coal in the producing area to soar. The competent department at a higher level held many meetings on ensuring supply and issued specific measures to actively ensure coal supply and speed up outward transportation. However, it is affected to a certain extent in the implementation and promotion of the policy, the effect of guaranteed supply is not as good as market expectations, and coal production and foreign transportation are tight. Under the expected gap, coal, port ships and other goods such as rickshaws in the producing area, and coal stocks in key power plants have declined, causing market concerns about coal supply to ferment. In addition, in the process of implementing "carbon neutralization" and "carbon peak", the coal industry has accelerated the elimination of backward production capacity, and the concentration of the coal industry has continued to increase; once the demand for coal has skyrocketed or the import of coal has decreased significantly, the pressure on supply in the domestic market has increased. Production and transportation are in a tense state, and coal prices rise unexpectedly.