The rebar futures price hit an all-time high and the main contract long increased its holdings by more than 100000 hands!

On April 23, the main rebar contract once exceeded 5300 yuan / ton, rising 1.67% in a day, a record high. The main rebar contract has risen for four consecutive trading days, up nearly 13% in the most recent month. In addition, long positions in 23 main rebar contracts increased by more than 100000 hands, short positions increased by nearly 50, 000 hands, and long positions in Yong'an futures increased by 27949 hands.

During the night session, rebar continued to rise, closing up 2.38% last night to close at 5373 yuan / ton.

China Iron and Steel Association recently released a report that due to the previous large increase, faster growth, transmission difficulties to downstream industries, steel prices are difficult to continue to rise sharply in the later period, should be dominated by small fluctuations. A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission also pointed out at a press conference that rising commodity prices and rising global inflation are the result of the gradual recovery of the global economy, short-term adjustment of supply and demand, ample liquidity, speculation and other factors. it has the characteristics of repair and stage. There is no overall and trend change between supply and demand of commodities, and their prices do not have the basis for long-term rise.

In addition, the Steel Industry low carbon work Promotion Committee was established in Shanghai on April 22. CISA said that it is necessary to find out the carbon emissions of the iron and steel industry as soon as possible, and study the low-carbon roadmap and action plan of the industry, so as to facilitate enterprises to refer to and implement them according to their own practice. At the same time, the committee will also carry out the identification of low-carbon products, research and development of low-carbon standard system and other work.

What is the impact of low-carbon emission reduction on rebar?

When it comes to low-carbon emission reduction, Jiang Weibo, an analyst at Zhongzhou Futures, said that the impact of low-carbon emission reduction on the production end of steel mills will become more obvious as the carbon peak deadline approaches. With the approach of the carbon peak in the later stage, the thread will also reach the output peak, which will form a strong support to the thread price and steel mill profit in the medium term.

"under the existing iron and steel production technology, it is difficult to achieve the goal of low-carbon production in the iron and steel industry. Therefore, the Iron and Steel Industry Association also made it clear that it is not only necessary to control production, but also to develop low-carbon smelting technology. We believe that controlling production at the current stage is the core means. The output control here has two meanings: one is to reduce the output of long process, after all, the carbon emissions of long process are greater; the other is to increase the output of short process, that is, to adjust the structure of rebar production line and increase the proportion of electric furnace. However, the adjustment of the production line structure is a relatively long-term thing, and it is difficult to make a qualitative change in a short period of time. Therefore, at this stage, the goal of low-carbon work is to reduce production. Under the expectation of steady growth of demand in the construction industry throughout the year, reducing production is bound to push the rebar price center upward. " Zhao Yongjun, futures analyst at CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd.

Will short-term rebar continue to rise?

Zhao Genqiang, a German futures analyst, believes that rebar broke through an all-time high this week, and for the first time, about 2110 per month exceeded the price of 2105 in recent months, which is a rare situation in the history of rebar market. In the context of the resurgence of the epidemic with the Federal Reserve "releasing water", countries have spared no effort to carry out currency overissuance to ensure national interests. Under the premise of strict implementation of production restrictions on environmental protection, with the rising prices of raw materials iron ore and coke, the rise in thread prices is also reasonable. Based on the K-line point of view, the rebar has been in a complete rising channel, with the emergence of new highs, high-level oscillation is also inevitable.

"at present, rebar shows a situation of high output but disturbed, high consumption but marginal decline and high inventory can be reduced, the contradiction between long and empty is very clear, and the profits of steel mills are high at present. From a policy point of view, since April, the Financial Stability and Development Board, the symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have successively expressed the need to strengthen market regulation of raw materials and ease the operating costs of enterprises. The market is expected to further limit production in other areas outside Tangshan. On the evening of April 21, Handan announced the regulation and control plan for key industries in the second quarter. Steel mills in Handan area will passively take measures to limit production. Zhongtian Iron and Steel was interviewed on April 22 because of environmental protection issues, and the market further adopted production control policies for other areas outside Tangshan. Taken together, we think the thread will continue to rise. The main risks are the sharp decline in consumption than expected and the absence of production restrictions at steel mills in other major production areas. " Jiang Weibo said.

Zhao Yongjun also believes that the rising trend of rebar will continue in the short term, mainly because the demand state in the peak season is still continuing, and there are two more days for the May Day holiday this year, and there is also a demand for storage at the terminal construction site.

"in mid-May, we believe that rebar prices have a downward risk, pay attention to the following three risk factors: first, the adjustment of export tax rebate policy. At present, domestic production is expected to continue to be suppressed, and as production so far this year is still significantly higher than last year, there may be more room for production reduction in the rest of the year. In order to alleviate the pressure of domestic supply, it is an important means to adjust the export tax rebate policy. On the other hand, the output of foreign steel has basically returned to the pre-epidemic level, and the advantage of domestic steel exports has also peaked, which is also conducive to adjusting the export tax rebate policy. Second, whether high prices lead to a sharp drop in demand in the off-season. After mid-May, the off-season of steel demand is gradually approaching, and the current high steel prices have pressure on the terminal, whether the terminal demand will be significantly reduced also needs to be concerned. Third, the margin of domestic money and credit is tightened. Excluding the impact of the epidemic, domestic economic growth returned to normal in the first quarter, monetary policy, credit policy is also expected to continue to tighten marginal, corporate capital level will be tested, steel demand will also be under pressure. " Zhao Yongjun said.