SMM4 March 12: on Friday, the outer disk metal fell across the board, Lun Copper fell nearly 0.9%, Lun Aluminum fell nearly 0.6%, Lun Zinc fell nearly 0.9%, Lunnickel fell nearly 1.1%, Lunxi fell nearly 0.3%, Lun lead fell nearly 0.9%, Lun Copper fell slightly on Friday, as rising inflation in China, a major consumer, worried that it might tighten monetary policy, but the expected tightening of supply pushed copper prices higher weekly. Analysts pointed out that the rally should recover as countries poured money into copper-intensive infrastructure and electrification, but warned that the upward path could stumble. LME metal fell across the board in early trading. As of around 09:30, Lun Copper fell nearly 1%, Lun Aluminum nearly 0.8%, Lun Zinc nearly 0.6%, Lunni nearly 1.3%, Lunxi flat, Lun lead down nearly 0.4%. On the domestic front, international copper and Shanghai copper fell nearly 1.8%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 1.3%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.8%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 1.1%, Shanghai nickel fell nearly 2%, Shanghai tin fell nearly 2.2%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, the US PPI recorded an annual rate of 4.2% in March, the highest since 2011. Potential inflationary pressures have increased risk aversion in the market. The dollar, boosted by higher US bond yields, climbed on Friday, with copper futures under pressure.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the rebound in the dollar index makes copper futures come down under pressure and spot transactions are expected to stabilize and pick up.
In terms of aluminum, the market: on Friday night, the Shanghai Aluminum main Company 2105 contract opened at 17485 yuan / ton, the highest price was 17595 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 17460 yuan / ton, closed at 17515 yuan / ton, still fluctuated around 17500 yuan / ton; In terms of the spot market, the spot trading in East China tended to be active in early trading on April 9, and the purchasing and preparation sentiment of downstream aluminum processing enterprises increased, aggravating the trading activity, and the spot discount level in East China quickly narrowed to around 20-10 yuan / ton for that month.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] spot transaction slightly rebounded and electrolytic aluminum maintained a small destocking trend.
Lead, last Friday, the dollar index first rose and then depressed, Lun lead long risk aversion to reduce positions, slightly lack of upward power, daytime attention to Lun lead below the 5-day moving average support. Last Friday night, Shanghai lead long and empty fierce game, out of the long shadow line of small Yang Zhu, but in the end Shanghai lead short once again, dragging down Shanghai lead lost 14850 yuan / ton first line. Recently, consumption in the lower reaches is still light, and the Shanghai lead 2104 contract is about to enter delivery this week, paying attention to the changes in social inventory of lead delivery and the impact of environmental inspectors on various places. Lead prices are expected to run between 14650 and 15050 yuan per ton this week. It is expected that today's spot lead is higher than that of last Friday.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead weakening this week focus on the change of social inventory of lead for delivery and the situation of environmental inspectors
Zinc, last Friday, Shanghai zinc recorded a small positive line, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a pressure, the lower 5-day moving average to provide support. From a fundamental point of view, the tight pattern on the supply side continues, and the social inventory is removed again, indicating that the basic support for zinc prices still exists. Short-term attention.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] High Zinc Price volatility short-term attention to Macro guidelines
In terms of nickel, the dollar index rose slightly on Friday, recovering some of the lost ground, as inflation indicators in the United States and China rose more than expected, pushing up US debt yields, the dollar index rose 0.12% to 92.18, metals fell, and the pressure at the 128000 gate above Shanghai nickel was strong. Today, we will focus on whether the Shanghai nickel macro stimulus will go lower further. Below, we will focus on the support of the 125000 mark. Shanghai Nickel is expected this week.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel futures remained light on Friday night when the upside fell back and the spot transaction remained light.
On the black side, the thread fell nearly 2.5%, the hot coil fell nearly 2.3%, coking coal rose nearly 0.8%, coke fell nearly 1.7%, iron ore fell nearly 0.8%, stainless steel fell nearly 0.5%, iron ore, the recent surge in commodity prices has attracted high-level attention, and after this round of rapid growth, short-term hot coil prices are in demand for technical adjustment. In the follow-up, strict production restrictions in the north have a greater impact on plate supply throughout the year, and a series of factors such as rising international coil prices and further outbreak of terminal demand for building materials are conducive to supporting coil prices, and hot coil prices are still expected to rise in the general direction.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the fundamentals' strong pattern has not changed, and the spot price of thread has been strong.
The previous period of crude oil rose nearly 1.2%, while international crude oil futures closed lower on Friday and fell about 2% this week, as increased production and renewed blockades imposed by some countries outweighed optimism that fuel demand would recover. The OPEC, made up of OPEC and its oil-producing allies, agreed to gradually increase supply by 2 million barrels a day between May and July. This puts downward pressure on oil prices.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.7%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 0.9%. Comex gold futures fell on Friday, dragged down by a jump in US bond yields and a rebound in the dollar, but the weekly line still rose for the first time in three weeks. Data released on Friday showed that the US producer price index ((PPI)) rose more than expected in March, recording the biggest year-on-year increase in nine and a half years. The data are in line with expectations that inflation will rise as the United States resumes work and production, the public health environment improves and the government invests a lot of money.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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