SMM3 March 31: most of the outer metal in the outer disk was green yesterday. Lun Copper fell on Tuesday, as the stronger dollar and rising inventories triggered a sell-off, while the market looked forward to manufacturing survey data to be released by China, the largest consumer. Analysts point out that there is no real fundamental news, the dollar is rising, inventories are rising and funds are selling. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), to be released this week, should provide us with clues to future demand. LME metal was generally red in early trading. As of around 09:30 in the morning, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.3%, Lun Aluminum and Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Nickel rose nearly 0.1%, Lun lead rose nearly 0.4%, and Lunxi was flat. On the domestic side, most of the metal market is green, international copper is down nearly 1.2%, Shanghai copper is down nearly 1.1%, Shanghai aluminum is down nearly 1.6%, Shanghai lead is up nearly 0.4%, Shanghai zinc is down nearly 1%, Shanghai nickel is down nearly 2.5%, and Shanghai tin is down nearly 1.1%.
On the copper side, on the macro front, US President Joe Biden will unveil an infrastructure plan on Wednesday. The market is optimistic about the outlook for the US economy. Boosted by the infrastructure plan, US bond yields hit a new high 10 years ago, and the dollar index rose above the 93 mark in intraday trading, the highest level in nearly five months. Us bond yields rose sharply, and the continued rise in the US index increased upward pressure on copper prices, which fell at night. In addition, LME inventories surged 10500 tons yesterday to 142550 tons, a three-month high.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] US debt and US index both performed poorly during the period of pressure on copper.
Lead, overnight, Lun lead recorded a long shadow line positive column, closed four Lianyang, the center of gravity moved up, in the overnight dollar index rose, LME basic metals fell in the atmosphere of limited decline. During the day, we pay attention to whether Lun lead can continue the long market and stand firm at 1950 yuan / ton. Overnight, Shanghai lead was strongly boosted by the trend of Lun lead, and its high position stabilized and rose slightly, becoming one of the few varieties of basic metals in the Shanghai Stock Exchange overnight, but during the day, we should be on guard against the increase of short positions in Shanghai lead and pay attention to the first-line support of 15300 yuan / ton. It is expected that today's spot lead is better than yesterday's.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] during the overnight period, Lun lead was strong and Shanghai lead rose slightly. The consignor discounted and expanded the goods actively.
Zinc, night Shanghai zinc recorded a negative column, the lower 5 / 10 moving average adhesion support, the upper Bollinger Road on the rail to form compression. The performance of Shanghai Zinc is weak due to the downward drag of the outer disk overnight. Yesterday, zinc prices rose after traders expanded to post water shipments, but the spot market turnover is light, wait-and-see mood is strong. However, in the short term, zinc basically faces the good trend and is recommended to buy every bargain.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] strong US Dollar trend Zinc prices fell slightly under pressure
On the nickel side, nocturnal metal declines, US vaccination boosts and massive economic stimulus packages have supported expectations of a strong economic recovery from the epidemic, pushing up US Treasury yields. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to a 14-month high of 1.776% on Tuesday and rose to 1.727% in late trading. Us bond yields hit a new high, the dollar index rose, metals were under pressure, and nickel was led down both inside and outside. Shanghai Nickel night trading opened at 123750 yuan / ton, and short positions depressed the price of nickel.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the general decline in metals helps long-term nickel bears' confidence to push down Shanghai Nickel and return to the 120000 mark at every high.
In terms of the black system, the thread is flat, the hot coil is up nearly 0.9%, the coking coal is up nearly 0.3%, the coke is slightly lower, the iron ore is up nearly 0.7%, and the stainless steel is up nearly 0.1%. Yesterday, even iron first suppressed and then rose, and the port spot market was basically stable in early trading. Some steel enterprises continue to purchase with rigid demand, and the market atmosphere in Tangshan has warmed up slightly today. In terms of trading varieties, today's mainstream fine ore is still favored by steel mills. SMM tracking data show that from March 21 to March 27, the number of arrivals from China's major ports decreased by 470000 tons compared with the previous period, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year. The current period of Australia and Pakistan port month-on-month significantly improved, but recently, with the rapid rebound in steel profits, steel production enthusiasm is high, there is still a certain support for iron ore prices.
"[minutes of SMM's internal morning meeting] the fundamentals are firmly supported, and the black system is still dominated by strong shocks in the short term.
Crude oil rose nearly 0.4% in the previous period, and international oil prices fell on Tuesday as the Suez Canal resumed navigation and the dollar strengthened. Shipping on Egypt's Suez Canal resumed late Monday after the Changzhi container ship, which ran aground on the canal, resurfaced, a busy channel that has been blocked for nearly a week, the head of the canal said. The 422 ships waiting to pass can be dredged in three and a half days.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 1.8%, Shanghai silver fell nearly 3%, and international gold futures prices closed down for the second trading day in a row on Tuesday. demand for safe-haven gold has been dampened by a stronger dollar, rising US bond yields and hopes for a faster recovery in the US economy. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to a 14-month high of 1.778%, buoyed by hopes of stronger growth and inflation, U.S. president Joe Biden will announce infrastructure spending plans in Pittsburgh on Wednesday.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
![[SMM Phân tích vĩ mô] Jackson Hole phát tín hiệu Fed diều hâu, thúc đẩy kỳ vọng tăng lãi suất vào tháng 9](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VCNvX20251217171735.jpeg)
