SMM2, March 24: most of the metals on the outer disk were green yesterday, and the price of copper futures on the London Metal Exchange hit a nine-and-a-half-year high on Tuesday, but the rally slowed as the stock market fell and investors questioned whether strong demand and tight supply would be enough to continue the amazing rally. Many analysts expect demand from the power and construction sectors to outstrip supply, potentially pushing copper prices to record levels above $10190 a tonne. The LME metal market was red this morning. By around 09:40, Lunchu was up nearly 1.2%, Lunzn Zinc was up nearly 0.5%, Lunxue and Lunxi lead were up nearly 0.7%, Lunxi was up nearly 0.8%, and Lenny Nickel was up nearly 0.3%. Domestically, international copper is up nearly 1.9%, Shanghai copper is up nearly 1.5%, Shanghai aluminum is up nearly 0.2%, Shanghai lead and tin are down nearly 0.5%, Shanghai zinc is down nearly 0.9%, and Shanghai nickel is down nearly 1.3%.
On the copper side, on the macro front, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell hinted yesterday that bond purchases would be maintained even if the economic outlook improved, reiterating a loose stance and playing down inflation concerns. Due to the Fed's commitment to keep current ultra-low interest rates and QE bond purchases, the US index rebounded at night, and copper futures came under pressure. But overall, there is a growing possibility that Congress will pass President Biden's $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package, with optimistic expectations that inflation expectations remain unchanged and the economy continues to improve, and late-night copper futures are rising again and bullish as a whole.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the Federal Reserve reiterates its loose position that copper still closed higher overnight.
Aluminum, last night Nonferrous overall callback, in which copper and aluminum is still strong. Although the half-week accumulation range is relatively large this week, the overall post-holiday accumulation range is still lower than expected, and the downstream resumption of work basically as planned before the festival will gradually return to business as usual after March, so the trend of aluminum can still be supported or to a certain extent. We need to continue to pay attention to the impact of the mismatch between domestic supply and demand after the Spring Festival on short-term mood fluctuations in the market. Domestic unilateral recommendations for bargain-seeking appropriate layout of long; domestic recommendations to continue to hold the positive set; internal and external recommendations to try anti-set.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the resumption of work downstream of aluminum is expected to resume as usual in March.
In terms of lead, overnight, LME lead stocks went to the warehouse slightly for two consecutive trading days, to 94525 tons, but LME basic metals generally fell in European time, Lun lead closed the negative column in this atmosphere, moved its center of gravity down, went down through the 5-day moving average, and focused on the support of the 10-day moving average during the day. Overnight, Shanghai lead was dragged down by lun lead and handed in all non-ferrous metals, falling below the 15800 yuan / ton line, hitting the 5-day moving average and walking out of the bald column. The recent lead downstream consumption is general, the purchase is limited, the expansion sticker water transaction is mainly. The current round of Shanghai lead with the rising market may not be over, but after a slight correction, the pressure is slightly higher again. Today, Shanghai lead pays attention to whether the 5-day moving average provides effective support.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead prices may fall slightly during the overnight trading period.
For zinc, affected by the downward stock market and dragged down by the outer disk, the optimism driven by the outer disk faded, although some downstream manufacturers returned to work earlier under the influence of the local New year policy this year, but the resumption of production is not high and the cold mood of receiving goods continues to pour cold water on the market. However, the downstream inventory is gradually depleted, the mood of bargain-hunting is still there, and the trend of downstream demand and supply shortage remains unchanged, which will also limit the further downward trend of Shanghai zinc, and the short-term shock situation will not change. Pay attention to the downstream production in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the macro trend of Shanghai Zinc falling back to normal range remains unchanged.
In terms of nickel, from a fundamental point of view, the medium-and long-term nickel market is more, but the overall red rise of non-ferrous metals after the Spring Festival is still due to macro-inflationary sentiment, and the current prices need to take into account the sustainability of market sentiment. In terms of risk factors, we need to take into account the weaker-than-expected global economic recovery, changes in Fed monetary policy, the uncertainty of the epidemic and other black swan events. We should also pay continuous attention to the fundamentals. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 142000-150000 yuan / ton, Lunni is 19400-21000 US dollars / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel spot transaction atmosphere is still light and the spot price of stainless steel continues to rise.
In terms of black, thread rose nearly 0.1%, hot coil fell nearly 0.2%, coking coal fell nearly 0.1%, coke fell nearly 1.7%, iron ore fell nearly 0.1%, stainless steel fell nearly 0.7%, hot coil, according to SMM statistics, this week estimated that the total market resources arrival volume of 176000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 251000 tons, a decrease of 59%. The volume of goods arriving in Shanghai this week is lower than that of the Spring Festival. This is mainly due to the resumption of shipments of the resources that pressured the port in the early part of the Spring Festival and concentrated on the market. Recently, due to the inappropriate price difference between the north and the south and environmental production restrictions, the southward movement of resources in North China is not smooth, coupled with the pressure on the port of Bayuquan Port, resulting in a decline in the volume of goods. In the short term, the transport capacity of the northern port has not yet fully recovered due to various factors, and the arrival speed of the market is relatively slow.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] after the festival, the starting rate of the electric furnace has been restored one after another, and the operating rate of the electric furnace has gone up with it.
Crude oil rose nearly 0.2% in the previous period, and crude oil futures prices closed slightly lower on Tuesday, but remained near one-year highs, with signs that countries around the world are relaxing epidemic restrictions. although concerns about the pace of economic recovery in the United States and the extent of recovery in Texas oil production have put some pressure on the market. U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly last week as refineries cut back on crude processing activity due to severe cold weather along the Gulf of Mexico, according to data released by the American Petroleum Association (API) on Tuesday.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.1%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 0.5%. Comex gold futures fell slightly in shock on Tuesday, as the US dollar recovered the ground lost by US Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell after his speech. Powell said the economic recovery was "uneven and far from complete". Mr Powell said it would take "some time" for the Fed to consider changing its policy to help the economy return to full employment and that he "does not expect inflation to rise to disturbing levels".
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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