Overnight, a number of data reports were positive, US dollar stocks rose, US bond yields rose, and gold and silver prices were under pressure. The USDA report continued to adjust the global cotton supply and demand situation, and raised China's cotton import and consumption in the new year. Us cotton rose by nearly 4%.
Us first asks employment data to spread good news, US Dollar and US stocks rise all the time
Last night, figures released by the Labor Department showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended January 30 was 779000, below the 830000 expected by Dow Jones survey economists.
Analysts believe that the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell last week, indicating that the labour market is stabilizing as the authorities begin to ease restrictions on companies related to the novel coronavirus epidemic.
As of the early morning close, the three major indexes of US stocks collectively closed higher, with the Dow up 1.08%, the S & P 500 up 1.09%, and the Nasdaq up 1.23%. Both the Nasdaq and the S & P 500 reached new highs. However, retail investors collectively fell, with game stations down more than 42%, nearly 90% lower than the record high set at the end of last month.
Gold and silver "fly straight down"
The precious metals market fell under pressure due to factors such as the rise in US dollar stocks, the rise in US Treasury yields and the market waiting for the latest developments in US stimulus measures. As of the early morning close, gold closed down 2.26% and silver closed down 1.8%.
Analysts believe that the rise in the US dollar and higher US bond yields are the two main reasons to suppress the rise in gold prices. The market is waiting for the results of US non-farm data, and gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly.
Yang Li, an analyst at Citic Futures, believes that silver is gradually returning to fundamental value. The divergence of the trend of silver futures at home and abroad indicates that the pressure of sufficient production capacity and inventory of silver in China may appear, the scene of silver "honeysuckle never night" is expected to be extinguished, while platinum, palladium and other precious metals are more worthy of attention.
USDA report positive, American Cotton rose 3.94%
The latest USDA data report was released early this morning. According to the data, as of January 28, 2021, the net export sales of American cotton in 2020 were 69300 tons, of which 22300 tons were sold in China, 76900 tons were shipped in China, and 24700 tons were shipped in China. Analysts believe that the USDA report continues to adjust the global cotton supply and demand situation, and increase China's cotton imports and consumption in the new year, supporting higher international cotton prices.
The price of crude oil "refueled" rose, and the price of oil hit an one-year high.
The U. S. Energy Information Administration's weekly data is good. Data show that US crude oil stocks were 476 million barrels in the week ended January 29, down 990000 barrels from the previous week. Us gasoline demand fell for two consecutive weeks, but gasoline demand was more than 10 per cent higher than in the same period of five years.
Affected by this news, the domestic futures market energy sector closed up yesterday, of which the main contract of PVC futures rose 4.2%, the main contract of styrene futures rose 3.2%, the main contract of crude oil futures rose 2.9%, and the main contract of methanol futures rose 2.7%.
Li Wanying, a senior energy analyst at Donghai Research Institute, said that in addition to US data, the crude oil market is also releasing other more positive signals. It is reported that at the 14th ministerial meeting of OPEC and its production reduction allies, the OPEC and its production reduction allies Market Monitoring Committee did not mention a change in oil policy. According to the plan, most member countries were required to maintain stable production in February, while Saudi Arabia, the largest exporter, voluntarily reduced production by 1 million barrels per day in February and March. In addition, although the recent epidemic in foreign countries is still in a state of spread, the market still has high expectations for vaccines.
It is worth noting that the cross-monthly price difference between New York crude oil and Brent crude oil is at its widest level in more than a year. In other words, the contract price in recent months is higher than that in distant months, which analysts believe is a sign that current demand and expected supply will tighten.
The recent rise in oil prices is partly due to new demand optimism triggered by the US fiscal stimulus. In addition, OPEC has also repeatedly promised to rebalance supply and demand in the oil market, and OPEC still expects production cuts to keep the oil market in short supply throughout the year. With the relief of the overseas epidemic, there is still room for oil prices to rise in the future, and the target price of oil in New York is 60 US dollars per barrel. " Li Wanying said.
"fuel oil follows oil prices upward. Although affected by the epidemic, traders are cautious about the future, resulting in pre-holiday stock preparation is less than in previous years, but the cost of spot prices form a certain support. From a fundamental point of view, she believes that the domestic supply of low-sulfur residue and asphalt resources has been partially tightened, and the cost of marine fuel has increased.
It is worth mentioning that PVC prices have been running strongly recently, rebounding from the bottom of the year, with a cumulative increase of more than 10 per cent. Li Weiming, a researcher at the Energy and Chemical Industry Group of Guangzhou Futures Research Institute, said that the rising logic of PVC mainly comes from the expectation of overhaul of overseas installations and the interpretation of the market's electricity price policy in Inner Mongolia, but the core driving force behind the rapid rise is still from the supply and demand structure of PVC itself.
Black rebounded strongly, iron ore rose by more than 5%
Yesterday, black futures rebounded strongly, as of the afternoon close, ferrosilicon rose by the limit, iron ore rose 5.3%, manganese silicon rose 3.7%, and coking coal rose more than 3%.
It is understood that Inner Mongolia will adjust the electricity price policy of some industries and implement the differential electricity price policy for ferroalloy and other eight industries in strict accordance with state regulations, and the tariff increase standards for differential electricity prices in 2022 and 2023 will be increased by 30% and 50% respectively on the basis of the current level. Starting from the second quarter of 2021, the industry and information department of the autonomous region, together with relevant departments, will, in accordance with the industrial policies of the state and the autonomous region, identify the enterprises that have been included in the list of enterprises with backward production capacity in the autonomous region in the current year.
"the rebound of ferroalloy varieties yesterday comes from the logic of cost rise under differential electricity prices in Inner Mongolia." The black research team of China Merchants Futures believes that at present, this policy can be interpreted as determining the absolute price impact, but the controversial point lies in the classification. Although the existing policy is that the furnace type below 2 × 25000 KVA is listed as a restricted category in the industrial structure adjustment catalogue at the national level, and the furnace type below 6300 KVA is listed as a phase-out category, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous region level has been increased. In the "14th five-year Plan" energy consumption double control opinion letter, it is proposed that the furnace type of 25000 KVA and below will be withdrawn in principle by the end of 2021.
"in the current market background of 'double control of energy consumption', the impact on ferroalloy will be reflected in the two paths of power cost and supply and demand. With the cancellation of high energy consumption concessions and the basic setting of cost increases under different electricity prices, follow-up attention will be paid to the policy details and implementation of both sides of supply and demand." The black research team of China Merchants Futures believes that based on the high energy consumption and the supply accounts for more than half of the "13th five-year Plan" in Mengning, the market has a strong expectation of supply compression.
Deng Wenzhe, a researcher at China Merchants Futures Steel Mine, said that the actual supply and demand of iron ore has not changed much in the near future, but the market is expected to swing violently. "this week, the accumulation rate of steel inventory continues to be super-seasonal. At the beginning of the week, the market is pessimistic about trading in advance at the raw material end after the festival, and the correction of finished products in the expected reduction of crude steel is relatively small, but the risk at the raw material end has been fully released. When the spot mood has improved, there is a larger rebound in the disk to repair part of the basis difference, and the actual situation needs to wait for post-holiday verification."
Looking to the future, Deng Wenzhe believes that the main risk point of iron ore lies in the steel reduction policy. "controlling carbon emissions as one of the main lines of the 14th five-year Plan policy and the iron and steel industry named by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, we do not doubt the implementation of the policy, but there will be greater uncertainty about the impact of the implementation time on the demand of the proximal end of iron ore. If the landing time is after the I2105 contract, the price will still maintain a strong trend in the near future."
In terms of the steel market, as of February 3, the country's daily steel turnover was 18300 tons, less than 100000 tons per day for nine consecutive days and less than 50,000 tons per day for five consecutive days; the average for the fifth day was 30700 tons, down 43 percent from the same period in last year's lunar calendar, and even lower than the level before New Year's Eve last year. Spot trade has almost returned to zero from 227400 tons on January 4 to 18300 tons on February 3, a drop of 92%.
Sinosteel futures Zhao Yi analysis believes that the sharp decline in spot steel transactions is mainly due to two aspects: one is caused by price. There was a big increase in the black industry chain in the fourth quarter of last year, and although it has fallen since the beginning of this year, it is still at a high level. In the face of rebar prices of more than 4000 yuan / ton, traders' willingness to hoard goods is lower than in previous years. Second, it is caused by the epidemic. Since the beginning of winter, the epidemic situation in some parts of the country has been repeated, the pressure of prevention and control has increased, and the movement of people and goods has been affected, especially in Hebei Province. In January 2021, the PMI of the iron and steel industry in Hebei Province was 46.9%, down 5% from the previous month; the index of new orders was 47.5%, down 9.6% from the previous month. The epidemic in Hebei Province has blocked local roads and transportation, and some steel mills have been forced to stop production due to a shortage of raw materials. With the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday, the trading atmosphere of the steel spot market will be further weakened.
It is understood that as of February 4, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.4414 million tons / week, declining for four consecutive weeks, halving from the beginning of the year; the total inventory was 10.6952 million tons, rising for six consecutive weeks, and the growth rate increased week by week. The starting point of the rebar warehouse this year is later than in previous years, but thanks to the late Spring Festival, the 15th day of the first lunar month is already the end of February, and the total accumulation time is guaranteed.
"according to the characteristics of previous years, inventory highs mostly occur in the second to third weeks after the Lunar New year, that is, the inventory peak this year may come in mid-early March; and half a month before and after the Spring Festival is the accumulation peak period. If the average inventory increment in the last two weeks is 1.5 million tons per week, at this rate, the total rebar inventory will be at least about 17 million tons, slightly higher than the level of 12 million-14 million tons in 2017-2019. After the stress test of a large amount of inventory last year, the absolute value of inventory is no longer the core factor affecting steel prices, but in the case of off-season, in the face of increasing inventory, steel prices are under pressure as a whole. " Zhao Yi said.
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