SMM1 March 14: most of the outer metal market was green yesterday, and copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose slightly on Wednesday, helped by the prospect of low inventories and strong demand this year, but the dollar strengthened and data released by big consumer China were lower than expected to limit the rise. Most of the LME metal markets were red this morning. As of 09:40, Lun Copper was up nearly 0.3%, Lun Zinc, Lun Aluminum, Lun Ni and Lun Pb were up nearly 0.1%, while Lunxi fell nearly 0.2%. On the domestic side, international copper and Shanghai copper fell nearly 0.1%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 1%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 2.1%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.1%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.2%, and Shanghai tin fell nearly 0.5%.
On the copper side, night copper fluctuated between ups and downs, mainly because of the macro aspect. Biden will unveil an economic reconstruction plan on Thursday, and Senate Democratic leader Schumer urged him to propose a rescue package worth more than $1.3 trillion. The market expects to increase government spending and hopes that the economy will continue to recover after the novel coronavirus crisis. Optimism helped copper rise, but on the other hand, the dollar rebounded from lows and strengthened again, putting some pressure on copper futures.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the US side has once again stepped up the amount of stimulus and efforts to shock copper prices at night highs.
In terms of aluminum, on the domestic side, the fundamentals supply side is slowly rising, consumption performance is seasonally declining, and the industry has entered the accumulation cycle. It is expected that the price center of gravity will fluctuate downward before the Spring Festival, and the lower price range is likely to be enlarged; attention should be paid to the impact of stock accumulation on the disk structure and market sentiment on absolute prices. Recently, due to the weakness of the US dollar index and the boost of oil prices, the overseas aluminum price is stronger than the domestic performance, and the overseas fundamentals are expected to be stronger than the domestic in the first quarter, so the import window continues to close, and the internal and external logic is still valid.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] 240000 tons of Hengkang Aluminum Industry in Shaanxi County is expected to resume production in March. The Spring Festival holiday situation of profile enterprises is different.
Lead, overnight dollar index concussion callback, outer disk metal trend differentiation, Lun lead by fundamentals support, close two Lianyang, become the overnight LME base metal in the top variety, upward challenge 2050 US dollars / ton first line. Overnight, the data of automobile production and sales in the lower reaches of December improved, boosting the confidence of the bulls in the market. Shanghai lead continued its daytime upward trend under the influence of Lun lead's rise, passing through the interlacing of the moving average group, superimposed on the tight regional nature of recycled lead in the spot market and the expectation of pre-festival reserve stock. During the day, we will pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can stand back above the moving average group. In the short term, it may still be under pressure.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead rises in the same period of trading overnight. The regional nature of recycled lead in the spot market is tight.
As for zinc, the supply side is relatively stable at present, but the epidemic situation in the north of the country is still grim, and some enterprises have inspected and repaired holidays one after another in mid-late January, dragging down downstream consumption. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. Short-term focus on the support strength of the 60-day moving average.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc prices fluctuate in a narrow range and focus on the support strength of the 60-day line.
On the nickel side, on the macro front, overseas easing and expected recovery in consumption still make the market believe that commodities are in a strong cycle, but the latest hawkish comments of the Federal Reserve have disturbed market sentiment, and for nickel prices, we still need to pay close attention to the impact of macro news. In addition, as the price of nickel continues to rise, there is pressure on the high itself, and the rate of price increase will gradually slow down. While there is support below, the space above is also limited.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel spot supply is still tight, the water is firm, and the center of gravity of high nickel pig iron is temporarily stable.
Tin, yesterday, the mainstream spot price of Shanghai and tin was basically flat, the spot price in circulation was less, the rising discount was stronger, and the mainstream discount was: 500,500 yuan / ton for 2103 contract Yunxi, 300,500 yuan / ton for ordinary Yunzi, and 1000 yuan / ton for small brands. The market transaction atmosphere is general, some downstream enter the market to replenish goods. Today's forecast: Shanghai tin is weak and volatile, the market performance is strong, today's spot is expected to be in the mainstream range of 152500-154000 yuan / ton.
"[1.14 Forecast of Tin Price Today]
In terms of the black system, the thread rose nearly 0.1%, the hot coil rose nearly 0.5%, the coking coal fell nearly 1.4%, the coke rose nearly 0.3%, and the iron ore rose nearly 0.2%. In terms of iron ore, there was an explosion in Qixia Gold Mine in Shandong Province, and it was rumored in the market that mines in Shandong area, including iron mines, were facing production suspension and rectification. According to SMM's understanding, at present, some mines in Shandong have been notified that all explosives are required to be sealed, and mines without raw ore storage are facing pressure to stop production; SMM will continue to follow up on the follow-up impact. In addition, due to the recent strong prices of raw materials, while the price of finished materials fell sharply, the profits of steel mills shrank rapidly again. According to the calculation of SMM data model, the thread and hot coil profits of domestic long-process steel mills are hovering around 100 yuan / ton at present, and the purchasing rhythm of steel mills slows down.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] January rebar supply maintains weak stability at 4200 points or keeps strong support.
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 1.1%, and international crude oil futures closed lower on Wednesday, retreating from recent gains on fears that the intensification of the global novel coronavirus epidemic will dampen fuel demand. Analysts say fuel demand has rebounded from the pandemic shock last spring, but as the novel coronavirus epidemic intensifies, governments continue to impose travel restrictions that will dampen energy demand for months.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.1%, Shanghai silver fell slightly, and COMEX gold futures rose slightly on Wednesday, with data showing rising consumer prices in the United States and expectations that more fiscal stimulus measures from the Biden administration could boost inflation. Analysts point out that more stimulus is expected, higher-than-expected inflation and safe-haven buying driven by the US political environment are all supporting gold prices.
As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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