The US House of Representatives passed the impeachment clause against US President Donald Trump on January 13, making Trump the first president in US history to be impeached by Congress for the second time and the first president to be impeached on the eve of leaving office. The vote was 232 to 197, with 10 Republicans joining the Democrats in favor of the impeachment clause against Trump.

After the House of Representatives passes the impeachment clause, the impeachment clause will be sent to the Senate, which will conduct an impeachment trial to decide whether to convict Trump. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on the 13th that the Senate will not try the impeachment case of the House of Representatives before Trump leaves office.

On January 13th, international oil prices hit an one-year high, NYMEX WTI crude oil futures rose to 53.93 U.S. dollars per barrel, ICE Brent crude oil futures rose to 57.42 U.S. dollars per barrel. Under the leadership of crude oil, Nenghua varieties are generally upward. In particular, varieties such as PTA, asphalt and high-and low-sulfur fuel oils have all increased by more than 2 per cent.

Us crude oil inventories fell by 3.248 million barrels in the week to January 8, according to data released by EIA yesterday. They are expected to fall by 300b, compared with a previous decline of 8.01 million b / d.

The energy plate is going up as a whole.

On January 13, under the leadership of crude oil, Nenghua varieties generally rose. In particular, varieties such as PTA, asphalt and high-and low-sulfur fuel oils have all increased by more than 2 per cent.

Referring to the reasons for the strong operation of oil prices that day, Li Wanying, a senior energy analyst at East China Sea Futures, believes that although the epidemic in Europe and the United States continues to ferment macroscopically, the launch of the vaccine gives investors hope. In addition, Saudi Arabia has previously said it would unilaterally cut production by 1 million barrels a day on top of its existing crude oil production quota. According to the plan, OPEC + production cuts will continue into the first quarter, and the pressure on the supply side will be relatively reduced under the combined influence of active and passive production cuts by oil-producing countries.

On the inventory side, Kpler, a data and information company, estimates that global offshore floating oil reserves were about 92.64 million barrels in the week starting January 10, the lowest level since the end of March last year. In fact, most of the floating oil is still off the coast of Asia, says Ms Li. Floating warehouse crude oil reserves peaked at 233 million barrels at the end of June last year, but have been gradually declining since then, and more and more super tankers have withdrawn from the oil storage market.

In addition, the current profits of oil products are relatively repaired, reflecting the fact that demand is recovering. At the same time, the current price difference structure shows that the international crude oil price spread structure has been repaired to backwadation, macro and fundamental resonance to push up oil prices. Li Wanying expects domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices to remain strong in the short term.

In this context, some analysts of Galaxy Futures Energy Investment Research believe that before the Spring Festival, the energy plate as a whole is expected to follow the strong operation of crude oil, the supply and demand side of low-sulfur fuel oil is driven upstream, and the supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil is tight and balanced. Asphalt is in surplus.

As for asphalt, Li Wanying said that at present, the fundamentals of this variety have not seen any obvious signs of strengthening, and it is recommended that multi-single holders be cautious.

For investors, some analysts of Galaxy Futures Energy Investment Research said that in the short term, in addition to preventing the impact of small-scale domestic outbreaks on the supply, demand and logistics of energy varieties, we also need to pay attention to the tightening pace of monetary policy by global central banks. In addition, once the vaccine effect and vaccination speed is not as expected, it will also have a greater impact on the market.

Shanghai Nickel continuous Oscillation

On January 13, under the repeated pull of the overall mood, the price of nickel in Shanghai continued to fluctuate. During the daily trading session, Shanghai Nickel rose steadily, rising more than 3%. But shortly after the start of the night session, Shanghai Nickel once plummeted.

With regard to the repeated pull of market sentiment in the near future, Wang Yingying, a non-ferrous metals researcher in Galaxy Futures, believes that it is mainly affected by macro sentiment.

According to Wang Zeyong, an analyst at South China Futures, although the market generally believes that the epidemic will not break out on such a large scale as last Spring Festival, and vaccination has already begun, as new cases continue to rise in some parts of the country, market sentiment will inevitably fluctuate.

At the same time, domestic market sentiment is also changing. Wang Yingying told Futures Daily that before, when Fed officials said that the economic recovery may come early and the time of raising interest rates is expected to be significantly advanced, the whole market is expected to strengthen the upward expectation of forward interest rates, and the dollar has rebounded in stages. Commodities fell in common. After the mood, market expectations of the Fed's quantitative easing continued, the dollar fell again and commodities rebounded again.

In terms of fundamentals, according to Wang Zeyong, although the fundamentals of nickel itself are stable, the recent news from the Philippines banning mining on the islands has triggered potential concerns about supply in the market. At the same time, stainless steel, in the case of fundamentals significantly better than the previous situation, not only spot prices have rebounded, the participation of industrial funds has also increased.

In fact, in Wang Yingying's view, there is a certain deviation between the current macro and fundamentals of nickel. In addition, the impact of the current new energy industry sentiment on the nickel industry has been magnified, and the rising mood may continue under the intermittent efforts of new energy sentiment and macro mood.

"it's just that recently, due to the continuous closure of the import window, the long-term import volume of pure nickel has declined, and the water supply has strengthened sharply. In addition, the market for pure nickel demand is expected to decline, the lack of import momentum, leading to the continuous removal of domestic inventory, the accumulation of contradictions, may affect the price comparison in the short term. " Wang Yingying said.

Wang Zeyong agrees with this. In his view, there is still room for nickel prices to rise in at least the first quarter, and there can be more than one step-by-step layout for every pullback.

Wang Zeyong said that under the influence of the rainy season in the Philippines, the tight supply of nickel mines is difficult to change in the short term, at least until the first quarter. In this context, the output of domestic ferronickel plants is likely to decline due to the limitation of raw materials and cost-end prices. As for pure nickel, it is reported that in the case of stable rigid demand and poor imports, domestic stocks are currently at a historically low level. After the Spring Festival is the peak season of stainless steel consumption, exports are likely to be better, superimposed stainless steel futures are also expected to usher in a wave of rise, which will jointly contribute to the rise in nickel prices.

Against this background, Wang Zeyong said that investors should pay attention to the changes in sentiment in the entire commodity market while paying attention to macro sentiment and epidemic tension. Once there is a subsequent correction in demand for commodities such as crude oil, nickel prices will most likely be affected. Besides. Fundamental logic also needs to be verified by the market, if the subsequent downstream demand is not as expected, the rise in nickel prices may not be as optimistic as expected, it is recommended to be cautious to chase higher.

"short-term investors also need to be wary of the risk of delivery of overseas hidden inventories. Although there is no substantial reduction in overseas nickel plate production in 2020, under the circumstances of a sharp decline in China's nickel plate imports, the delivery volume of LME nickel plate increased slightly in 2020, and there is a hidden concern about nickel plate overseas. In the case of high nickel prices, the pace of delivery may be accelerated. " Wang Yingying added.

Coking coal and coke go down by a large margin.

On January 13, under multi-factor resonance, the futures prices of coking coal and coke fell sharply. In Wang Zeyong's view, this is mainly affected by macro and their respective fundamentals.

According to reports, in the early days, the Fed said that once the major economic data reached its target, the Fed would consider withdrawing its easing policy. Investors are also worried that after the Democratic Party of the United States comes to power, the economy will repair faster than expected and withdraw from the easing cycle ahead of time. Against this backdrop, US bond yields have risen sharply, and the long atmosphere in the market has cooled somewhat.

According to Wang Zeyong, coking coal, under the rumors of loosening Australian coal imports, market worries rose and prices fell sharply. In terms of coke, the large-scale elimination of coke production capacity has come to an end, the release of pressure on new production capacity in the fourth quarter of last year, and the gap between coke supply and demand has gradually narrowed. In addition, it is currently in the off-season of terminal demand, and the market is worried about the impact of the epidemic on the transportation of raw materials, leading to the passive suspension of production in steel mills and the continuous decline of the disk

Wang Zeyong told reporters that the current coking coal and coke market is more concerned about transport control in Hebei. Hebei Province is a province with net inflow of coking coal and coke. at present, the stock of raw materials in Hebei Steel Plant is on the low side. Once automobile transportation is restricted, steel mills may make bricks without rice in the case of limited fire transport capacity, resulting in passive shutdown of steel mills.

"in addition, coking coal, in the near future, will also pay attention to the follow-up development of yesterday's rumors." He said. It is understood that there were rumors yesterday that nearly 8 million tons of Australian coal floating in Chinese waters may be allowed to pass through customs. At present, the overall supply of Mongolian coal is tight due to the low level of customs clearance affected by the epidemic and the safety of domestic production near the end of the year. Once Australian coal imports are relaxed, it will greatly ease the supply pressure.

As for coke, Wang Zeyong said that the market is also very concerned about the release of new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and the gap between supply and demand of coke is still large. Judging from the announced production capacity, nearly 10 million tons of new production capacity began to be gradually out of coke in January. In the case of weak terminal and seasonal decline of hot metal output in steel mills, the coke supply gap gradually narrowed, but still remained tight.

What will be the performance of coking coal and coke in the coming period of time?

Wang Zeyong said that in view of the fact that the production capacity of coke enterprises was eliminated less in the first quarter, while the new production capacity of coke enterprises was blocked last year, although the situation has improved and production has begun to be gradually released. However, due to the large gap in the early stage, the coke can remain tight even if the output is released. In addition, in view of the fact that there is still a batch of capacity demand phase-out after the end of the heating season, there is limited room for coke to fall as a whole.

At the same time, considering that the new production capacity of coke enterprises will be gradually put into production in the first quarter, the demand for coking coal will be supported. In addition, in view of the current Sino-Australian relations, Australian coal clearance is still tight. And Mongolian coal clearance due to the impact of the epidemic, it is more difficult to recover. "under such circumstances, the impact of imported coal at the beginning of the year is obviously weak, and the supply of domestic production at low prices is seasonally low. In the case of tight supply and improved demand, the overall trend of coking coal is relatively strong. " Wang Zeyong said.